Reply #3: i trade

[sgxnk]

i trade dow jones futures (primarily the DJIA futures, but i also dabble in nikkei, etc.) for a living

arguments of this sort are stupid

markets move through different cycles from overbought to oversold and back again. that much is clear

while sometimes any sort of stupid and relatively meaningless incident can precipitate a selloff (even a fat fingered junior trader at a desk in japan - as happened recently), blaming or crediting a president for a bubble (a la 2000) or a bubble popping, or a stagnant basing period, etc. etc. is silly

it just doesn't really work that way

if the dow was up 10% from the inception of bushco presidency i would not credit bush, unless some very specific policies could be linked. similarly, if it was down 10% i would not blame him

or clinton. or any president

the market simply does not work that way

i trade primarily based on quantitative analysis, based on a # of setups.

fwiw, before you listen to ANY economist try to magick out THEIR reasons for stock market's relative under or overperformance just remember that I am aware of almost NO economists who EVER make good traders

they may understand abstract theory, but their true understanding of the machination of the markets is usually disconnected from reality

emotion rules the market. good traders know this and take advantage, knowing when to fade the crowd or to buy the rally on pullback

the markets been going through the same sorts of gyrations now, that it was doing 100 years ago, current or past presidents be damned

jp morgan said it best. when asked what the market was going to do in the future, he said "it will fluctuate"