Reply #8: It probably won't. We seem to be heading for a flip

[hecate77]

It is unlikely that the pole is shifting in a repeatable pattern. A respondant below mentions a 26,000 year cycle, but that is related to the wobble of the earth's axis and where the rotational axis points in the sky, and is not related to the flip of the magnetic poles of the earth. This flip is a relatively regular phenomenon, as witnessed by the bands of material deposited along the mid-Atlantic rift. This material freezes out of the magma as it comes to the surface and takes on the a magnetic orientation that reflects the magnetic field direction of the earth at the time that it solidifies. This area is a series of bands, alternating north and south, showing that, over time, the poles have flipped on a fairly regular basis.

Where the pole might wander as it weakens is purely random. It might go to Siberia one time, it might go to Alaska another time, whatever. The real process is a breakdown of the strong dipole field into a multipole field, with the strongest poles weakening. Eventually, the field reorganizes into one of the opposite orientation, only to slowly begin the process of flipping back the other way in the future. The cycle takes an average of 300.000 years.