Reply #5: Sultan

[H2O Man]

has done good against some "big" opponents, but there are a couple of things that suggest he will be in for a tough fight. His July 2006 draw with Ray Austin, in which both men hit the canvas, was a pretty disappointing performance. On one hand, it can be hard to look good against Austin; on the other hand, in Ray's next fight, Klitschko looked good in TKOing him in 2 rounds. (Attila Levin also TKOed Ray)

Since decisioning Peter, Klitschko has fought four times; three were against easy competition. Only Calvin Brock posed any threat. Sultan has better side-to-side movement, and ability to avoid punches than Brock. But he also was hurt by Evander Holyfield.

If Sultan can avoid getting hit, and can bring Slitschko into the late rounds, he has a chance of upsetting him. But I think he'll have a hard time hurting Wladimir.

If Klitschko wins, he will defend against a mandatory challenger, Alexander Povetkin, who TKOed Chris Byrd and decisioned Eddie Chambers in a mini-tournament. After he TKOs Povetkin, he is apparently going to fight the winner of Valuev vs Chagaev. I consider either of those two as a serious challenge to Klirschko.

Chagaev isn't a big guy, but is smart, athletic, and hits very hard. (I'll see if I have a photo I tok of him last June at the Hall of Fame. Nice guy.) And with Valuev, it would be interesting to see Klitschko have to thow punches at a larger target. His "plane of power" is at shoulder height, or just below. It's not a big range -- other than those long arms! But he isn't a guy who can hurt an opponent anywhere he hits them. That's why he has Manny S, to help him bring shorter opponents into that range of power with that jab. Valuev takes that away; plus with his size, he could tire Klitschko, who tires rapidly when he isn't relaxed.

I'll be surprised if the Peter vs Maskaev fight comes off. The guy is scared to death of Samuel. Although the sizes are different, it reminds me of Floyd Patterson and Sonny Liston. If they fight, it will seem even closer to Patterson vs Liston.

Klitschko and Peter will, unless there's an upset, fight in MSG for the unified, real heavyweight title in early 2009. Klirschko's people want Peter to have long gaps between fights. He isn't sharp when he doesn't fight. He needs a few easy tune-ups to stay sharp. At this point, I see their rematch as an even call.