ONE OUT OF 4.5 BILLION!

[TruthIsAll]

Those are the odds that Kerry's EXIT poll percentage would
EXCEED his ACTUAL reported vote percentage by MORE THAN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR in 16 out of 51 States by chance alone. That
is exactly what occurred on Nov. 2.

I know that is hard to fathom. But here is the data. And here
is the calculation, based on the number of individuals polled
in each state and the corresponding Margin of Error (MOE).

The chances of a given state falling outside the MOE = 1/20 =
.05. The calculation for the probability that 16 out of 51
states would fall outside the MOE is a simple one which uses
the BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION:

The Probability (P) that at least 16 out of 51 states would
deviate beyond the exit poll MOE is:

      P = 1-BINOMDIST(16,51,0.05,TRUE)

This returns P= 0.0000000218559% or 1 out of 4,575,415,347!

Here is how the odds decrease as the number of states (N)
exceeding the MOE increase:

N>MOE Odds
 3:  1 out of 4
 5:  1 out of 24
 8:  1 out of 139
10:  1 out of 2707
12:  1 out of 1,037,879
14:  1 out of 57,503,169
15:  1 out of 490,978,624
16:  1 out of 4,575,415,347

The individual state probabilities are calculated using the
Normal distribution Function.

For example, consider Florida:
The probability that Kerry's 50.51% exit poll percentage would
decline to 47.47% in the actual vote (a 4.04% deviation, far
outside the 1.84% MOE) is equal to .06%.

This calculation is based on the FL exit poll sample size of
2846, which produces a MOE of 1.84%. The corresponding
standard deviation (StDev) is 0.94%. The StDev is plugged into
the normal distribution function, along with the exit poll and
reported vote percentages.

The probability that this deviation would occur due to chance
is:
 .06% = 100*NORMDIST(47.47%,50.51%,.94%,TRUE)

Here are the Exit Poll and Voting Results for all the states:

Size refers to the exit poll sample size for the given state.
The percentages are Kerry's Exit Polls and reported Votes.

............Kerry
State	Size	Exit	Vote	Diff	StDev	MoE	Prob  	>MoE?	Favor
DE	770	58.50%	53.54%	-4.96%	1.80%	3.53%	0.29	yes	Bush
NH	1849	55.40%	50.51%	-4.89%	1.16%	2.28%	0.00	yes	Bush
VT	685	65.00%	60.20%	-4.80%	1.91%	3.74%	0.60	yes	Bush
SC	1735	46.00%	41.41%	-4.59%	1.20%	2.35%	0.01	yes	Bush
NE	785	36.76%	32.32%	-4.44%	1.78%	3.50%	0.64	yes	Bush

AK	910	40.50%	36.08%	-4.42%	1.66%	3.25%	0.38	yes	Bush
AL	730	41.00%	37.00%	-4.00%	1.85%	3.63%	1.53	yes	Bush
NC	2167	48.00%	44.00%	-4.00%	1.07%	2.11%	0.01	yes	Bush
NY	1452	63.00%	59.18%	-3.82%	1.31%	2.57%	0.18	yes	Bush
CT	872	58.50%	55.10%	-3.40%	1.69%	3.32%	2.24	yes	Bush

RI	809	64.00%	60.61%	-3.39%	1.76%	3.45%	2.68		Bush
MA	889	66.00%	62.63%	-3.37%	1.68%	3.29%	2.21	yes	Bush
PA	1930	54.35%	51.00%	-3.35%	1.14%	2.23%	0.16	yes	Bush
MS	798	43.26%	40.00%	-3.26%	1.77%	3.47%	3.29		Bush
OH	1963	52.10%	49.00%	-3.10%	1.13%	2.21%	0.30	yes	Bush

FL	2846	50.51%	47.47%	-3.03%	0.94%	1.84%	0.06	yes	Bush
MN	2178	54.50%	51.52%	-2.98%	1.07%	2.10%	0.27	yes	Bush
UT	798	30.50%	27.55%	-2.95%	1.77%	3.47%	4.78		Bush
ID	559	33.50%	30.61%	-2.89%	2.11%	4.14%	8.60		Bush
AZ	1859	47.00%	44.44%	-2.56%	1.16%	2.27%	1.38	yes	Bush

VA	1000	47.96%	45.45%	-2.50%	1.58%	3.10%	5.66		Bush
LA	1669	44.50%	42.42%	-2.08%	1.22%	2.40%	4.49		Bush
IL	1392	57.00%	55.00%	-2.00%	1.34%	2.63%	6.78		Bush
WI	2223	52.50%	50.51%	-1.99%	1.06%	2.08%	3.00		Bush
WV	1722	45.25%	43.43%	-1.82%	1.20%	2.36%	6.54		Bush

NM	1951	51.30%	49.49%	-1.81%	1.13%	2.22%	5.54		Bush
CO	2515	49.10%	47.47%	-1.63%	1.00%	1.95%	5.15		Bush
IN	926	41.00%	39.39%	-1.61%	1.64%	3.22%	16.42		Bush
GA	1536	43.00%	41.41%	-1.59%	1.28%	2.50%	10.69		Bush
MO	2158	47.50%	46.00%	-1.50%	1.08%	2.11%	8.17		Bush

NJ	1520	55.00%	53.54%	-1.46%	1.28%	2.51%	12.67		Bush
WA	2123	54.95%	53.54%	-1.41%	1.09%	2.13%	9.70		Bush
IA	2502	50.65%	49.49%	-1.15%	1.00%	1.96%	12.41		Bush
AR	1402	46.60%	45.45%	-1.15%	1.34%	2.62%	19.55		Bush
KY	1034	41.00%	40.00%	-1.00%	1.55%	3.05%	26.01		Bush

OK	1539	35.00%	34.00%	-1.00%	1.27%	2.50%	21.63		Bush
MI	2452	52.50%	51.52%	-0.98%	1.01%	1.98%	16.47		Bush
NV	2116	49.35%	48.48%	-0.87%	1.09%	2.13%	21.29		Bush
ME	1968	54.75%	54.08%	-0.66%	1.13%	2.21%	27.80		Bush
MD	1000	57.00%	56.57%	-0.43%	1.58%	3.10%	39.18		Bush

DC	795	91.00%	90.91%	-0.09%	1.77%	3.48%	47.96		Bush
MT	640	39.76%	39.80%	0.04%	1.98%	3.87%	50.72		Kerry
OR	1064	51.20%	52.00%	0.80%	1.53%	3.00%	69.91		Kerry
HI	499	53.30%	54.55%	1.25%	2.24%	4.39%	71.10		Kerry
TX	1671	37.00%	38.38%	1.38%	1.22%	2.40%	87.10		Kerry

TN	1774	41.50%	43.00%	1.50%	1.19%	2.33%	89.68		Kerry
CA	1919	54.00%	55.56%	1.56%	1.14%	2.24%	91.35		Kerry
SD	1495	37.76%	39.39%	1.63%	1.29%	2.53%	89.65		Kerry
ND	649	34.00%	36.36%	2.36%	1.96%	3.85%	88.58		Kerry
KS	654	35.00%	37.37%	2.37%	1.96%	3.83%	88.76		Kerry

Avg	1450	49.18%	47.38%	-1.80%	1.42%	2.79%	21.67		Bush
Med	1507.5	49.23%	47.47%	-1.81%	1.29%	2.52%	6.66		Bush