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Reply #18: "...isn't true at all"? Then help me here. [View All]

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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-20-08 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. "...isn't true at all"? Then help me here.
You know that Orange Revolution in Ukraine. It left me a little red in the face upon closer examination.
This brings us to the final ingredient of these new coupsthe deployment of polling agencies' "exit polls" broadcast on international television to give the false (or sometimes accurate) impression of massive vote-fraud by the ruling party, to put targeted states on the defensive. Polling operations in the recent coups have been overseen by such outfits as Penn, Schoen and Berland, top advisors to Microsoft and Bill Clinton. Praising their role in subverting Serbia, then Secretary of State Madeleine Albright (and later Chairman of NDI), in an October 2000 letter to the firm quoted on its website, stated: "Your work with the National Democratic Institute and the Yugoslav opposition contributed directly and decisively to the recent breakthrough for democracy in that country . . . This may be one of the first instances where polling has played such an important role in setting and securing foreign policy objectives." Penn, Schoen, together with the OSCE, also ran the widely televised "exit poll" operations in the Ukrainian elections.

And how 'bout them reluctant responders in Georgia? And I don't mean the Peach State.

Georgia's opposition is calling for mass street protests after accusing the authorities of trying to rig Saturday's snap presidential elections.

Exit polls suggested President Mikhail Saakashvili won the elections, possibly by enough votes to avoid a run-off.

But opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze said the exit polls had been "falsified".


No official results have yet been published, and analysts are urging caution, as 20% of respondents in the exit poll refused to say who they had voted for.


Mr Saakashvili called the early election in an attempt to prove his democratic credentials after huge opposition protests were suppressed in November.

Hey. Not too bad. For the fascists that encouraged Saakashvili's Ossetian adventure. Maybe the International Republican Institute commissioned that poll, too. You know that group. Right? The one that boasts the likes of Tom Feeney and Liz Cheney on it's web site.

Now what effort to discredit exit polls are you referring to? TIA's. :shrug:

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  -Why don't we just get our shit together and start an independent national exit polling organization? garybeck  Sep-19-08 11:33 PM   #0 
  - The Reicht wing would slam them as biased and the MSM would help.  yourout   Sep-19-08 11:35 PM   #1 
  - Neither the GOP or the GOP-controlled media have any room to talk. n/t  ColbertWatcher   Sep-19-08 11:39 PM   #3 
  - slam as they want, if the UN and other international orgs endorse it, they'll look pretty foolish.nt  garybeck   Sep-20-08 12:30 AM   #4 
     - Why don't you ask the UN, Carter Center, et al if they recommend exit polls  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 02:01 AM   #7 
  - The group who did them for decades was reliable and non partisan, give them real tools again  Hestia   Sep-19-08 11:38 PM   #2 
  - is it possible someone is currently doing unbiased polling already, but we're  diva77   Sep-20-08 01:52 AM   #5 
  - I'm sure we'd know about it. n/t  garybeck   Sep-20-08 01:56 AM   #6 
  - If we had our shit together, we wouldn't still be hanging hopes on exit polls. n/t  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:22 AM   #8 
  - The media will not touch exit polls because they were fudged with during the 2004  applegrove   Sep-20-08 12:26 PM   #9 
  - oh, they will touch them again  democraticinsurgent   Sep-20-08 04:45 PM   #10 
     - During the 2006 election they just asked people where they stood on issues  applegrove   Sep-20-08 06:49 PM   #11 
        - sorry, this simply isn't true  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 06:55 PM   #12 
           - Well they were not reporting said exit polls on the news. I haven't done  applegrove   Sep-20-08 07:11 PM   #13 
              - sure, there is renewed caution in interpretation  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:11 PM   #16 
                 - they wouldn't even release the raw exit poll data  garybeck   Sep-20-08 08:31 PM   #17 
                 - why?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:46 PM   #19 
                    - Who cares what he was going to do with the raw exit poll data?  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:01 PM   #20 
                    - did he try to impound the ballots?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 09:21 PM   #21 
                       - NVRI went to court for that. n/t  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:43 PM   #23 
                    - why should you care what he's going to do with it?  garybeck   Sep-20-08 09:35 PM   #22 
                       - Again, I think it's his perogative (and a good idea) to try to grab up what he can.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:56 PM   #24 
                       - yeah, that too. my suggestion  garybeck   Sep-20-08 10:02 PM   #26 
                          - I certainly realize you aren't recommending abandoning other reform efforts.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:17 PM   #29 
                             - 'most in the ER community would be OK with '  garybeck   Sep-20-08 10:50 PM   #38 
                                - Audits are tough to push. But NJ wound up with a risk-based audit. That's good news.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 09:14 AM   #41 
                                   - but what? n/t  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:13 PM   #48 
                                      - Inefficient. n/t  Wilms   Sep-21-08 05:11 PM   #61 
                                         - less efficient than hand counting all the ballots? n/t  garybeck   Sep-21-08 11:26 PM   #74 
                                         - I'm saying inefficient because 10% is too much sometimes, and way to little at others.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 11:36 PM   #76 
                                            - why I like Simon's method  garybeck   Sep-22-08 11:10 PM   #98 
                                            - I forgot VT has a flat two percent audit.  Wilms   Sep-23-08 01:08 AM   #101 
                                            - Actually we don't have a flat 2% audit  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:21 PM   #104 
                                            - IGNORE -  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:24 PM   #105 
                                            - ignore  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:25 PM   #106 
                                         - Not so inefficient except for not-so-close races but...  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 11:34 PM   #75 
                       - ethics  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:41 PM   #44 
                       - bullshit  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:12 PM   #47 
                          - go ahead and shoot the messenger  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:02 PM   #53 
                             - Data  BeFree   Sep-21-08 04:24 PM   #58 
                                - this is mostly unreadable  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 06:21 PM   #62 
                                   - On the subj. of confidentiality...  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 10:57 PM   #70 
                                   - sure, I'm happy to explain it again  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:28 AM   #80 
                                   - Well, the problem is  Febble   Oct-10-08 03:58 AM   #121 
                                   - I'm sorry  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:50 PM   #108 
                                      - flame bait  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:24 PM   #113 
                                         - Of course  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:37 PM   #115 
                       - Sigh  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:43 PM   #109 
                          - Says who?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:29 PM   #111 
                             - And  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:33 PM   #112 
                             - huh?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:43 PM   #114 
                             - You don't need to look it up  Febble   Oct-10-08 03:54 AM   #120 
                 - Oh they could have been rigged if the GOP sent out a meme to the  applegrove   Sep-21-08 11:06 AM   #42 
  - I agree completely. I think that's the scientific answer.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 07:35 PM   #14 
  - malarkey  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:07 PM   #15 
  - Malarkey? How can that be? Within the exit poll margin of error?  Usrename   Sep-20-08 09:57 PM   #25 
     - What, you don't think there can be a 20% MoE in one precinct?  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:27 PM   #34 
     - Precint results from Duval county (spreadsheet).  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:50 PM   #37 
        - Well, if you exit poll 165 voters, there's a margin of error of +/- 10%  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 10:37 PM   #67 
           - How many of the respondents said they voted for two presidents?  Usrename   Sep-21-08 10:46 PM   #68 
              - My reasoning is that there are NOT enough voters polled in a precinct  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 11:13 PM   #72 
                 - That's right.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 12:02 AM   #78 
                 - what's right?!  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 06:45 AM   #82 
                    - I think you are being intentionally obtuse.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 09:19 AM   #84 
                       - you think *I* am being intentionally obtuse?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 09:42 AM   #86 
                          - What is it you don't understand?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 05:42 PM   #88 
                             - "They did this because of the high overvote rate in heavily Gore precints."  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:58 PM   #91 
                                - Malarkey ring any bells.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:34 PM   #92 
                                   - flame war is your best play?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 06:39 PM   #93 
                                      - Flame war? What is wrong with you?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:55 PM   #95 
                                         - I'm damn sick of your stonewalling  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 07:29 PM   #96 
                                            - You keep accusing me of behavior that I haven't done.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 11:17 PM   #99 
                                            - the thing you "haven't done" is to support your claims  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-23-08 05:00 AM   #102 
                 - Here's a simplified illustration of what happened in Duval County.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 12:41 AM   #79 
     - the MoE within individual counties?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 08:01 AM   #40 
        - Glad you cleared that up.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 11:08 AM   #43 
           - it isn't a matter of "understanding"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:44 PM   #45 
              - I didn't know any of what I claimed was in dispute.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 02:24 PM   #51 
                 - "where votes were missing in the returns"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:09 PM   #56 
                    - Yes, you do seem to be flummoxed.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 09:37 PM   #65 
                       - you say it's the point, but you aren't supporting it:  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:52 AM   #81 
                          - Yes, it was odd to me that the VNS guy was on live.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 09:13 AM   #83 
                             - is this intended as satire?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 09:44 AM   #87 
                                - This is a very simplistic graph for you.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 05:46 PM   #89 
                                   - no, your claim was about EXIT POLLS  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:52 PM   #90 
                                      - What is it exactly that you think I am claiming that is smoke?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:48 PM   #94 
                                         - "OBVIOUSLY, the MOE was such that they made the call early for FL."  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 07:32 PM   #97 
                                            - You think they blew the call?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 11:29 PM   #100 
                                               - you are amazingly obtuse  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-23-08 05:21 AM   #103 
                                                  - "THEY BLEW THE CALL!!"  BeFree   Oct-09-08 10:06 AM   #107 
                                                  - yeah, they blew the call  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 08:09 PM   #116 
                                                  - They called Florida correctly  BeFree   Oct-09-08 10:05 PM   #118 
                                                  - no, they should not have called Florida at all  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 05:03 AM   #122 
  - "...isn't true at all"? Then help me here.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 08:32 PM   #18 
  - Here ya go!  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:13 PM   #27 
  - I spent three weeks in the third world and had some great meals served that way.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:19 PM   #30 
     - You mean New York? nt  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:21 PM   #32 
        - Well, NY too. But I was there much longer.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:29 PM   #35 
  - I guess that's a fair question.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:17 PM   #28 
     - Oh, and that's a fair comment.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:25 PM   #33 
        - Full-nightmare mode, to be sure.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:41 PM   #36 
        - I think that's close to what we have  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:48 PM   #46 
           - Well then they weren't smart enough to widen the sample.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 04:56 PM   #59 
              - "what we need is a secure voting system"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 06:30 PM   #63 
              - And, interestingly  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:49 PM   #110 
              - MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!  Usrename   Sep-21-08 10:48 PM   #69 
  - I agree, Exit Polls should be required reading at the Academy!  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:20 PM   #31 
  - Because a close election will always be...  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 01:06 AM   #39 
  - 2004 wasn't close. that's the point.  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:20 PM   #49 
     - Uncle.  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 01:57 PM   #50 
     - Neither was FL 2000.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 02:27 PM   #52 
        - Imho, both FL/2000 & OH/2004 were within ...  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 03:06 PM   #54 
           - I don't even know what that means.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 09:45 PM   #66 
     - it was close on both  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:11 PM   #57 
  - Suggested plan B if the independent exit polling organization doesn't happen  diva77   Sep-21-08 03:07 PM   #55 
  - and that will...  Wilms   Sep-21-08 04:57 PM   #60 
     - I would think it would shine a brighter light on polls that are  diva77   Sep-21-08 08:25 PM   #64 
        - I think the rationale for exit polls is a little different.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 11:04 PM   #71 
        - This you may enjoy.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 11:18 PM   #73 
           - thanks, Wilms! hmmm..maybe we have our new "it-girl" pollster  diva77   Sep-21-08 11:51 PM   #77 
              - Aaak!  Wilms   Sep-22-08 09:30 AM   #85 
  - FOLKS, THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING! CHECK THIS OUT!  garybeck   Oct-09-08 09:35 PM   #117 
  - K&R and how to support the Election Verification Polling  emlev   Oct-10-08 12:21 AM   #119 
  - The ACORN solution  jagerbb   Oct-10-08 11:02 AM   #123 
     - I'm thinking you are on the wrong board n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 12:31 PM   #124 

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