Reply #183: anecdotal evidence is irrelevant at this point

[rjbny62]

numbers are needed, and that is what makes this study so compelling. Someone over at Kos showed that large numbers of Kerry supporters voted early in a few dem leaning counties - see http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/13/164121/27 for more details

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My theory is that the early democratic vote turnout - while may have been similar to republican - was from areas that are more friendly to K/E.. e.g. I suspect the turnout in Orange and Durham counties (dem. strongholdes 2:1 Kerry voters) turned out higher than other areas for the early absentee voting...

Actually my theory seems supported ...
In Orange county 2 to 1 kerry voters..

early absentee voting was more than 50% of the total votes cast.. in Orange County (chapel hill)

That could explain the results.... Dems from very friendly areas including Orange and Durham turned out much higher for early voting than dixiecrat or less liberal dems in the rest of the state.

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I would like someone to calculate whether the early Kerry voters in these counties could actually account for the large discrepency between the Pres/Senate races and all the other races, which was so clearly illustrated in the study.