Reply #63: I thought we covered this in November 2004

[Awsi Dooger]

Nothing out of line in Dade, Broward or Palm Beach. Not that I can see. Sure, the raw vote totals went up. They did throughout the state. Florida had roughly 7,600,000 votes cast in 2004 compared to 5,900,000 in 2000.

Democrats outregistered the GOP in these counties by about 168,000 to 49,000 from 2000 to 2004. But you can't expect that difference to automatically show up in the voting margins. Kerry did 5% worse than Gore statewide and more than 3% worse nationwide. That basic change in preference will be plopped atop those counties and alter the percentages. They were exactly what I would have expected, if someone told me Bush would win by 3% nationwide: Kerry fairing several points worse than Gore, on average, in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Our net edge in those three counties is approximately 7000 votes higher than 2000, despite the loss of 4% in Broward and 3% in Palm Beach.

No, Kerry didn't fare 3% worse than Gore nationwide. I understand that will be the response. However, there were plenty of reasons to anticipate Bush outperforming his 2000 result in Florida. The state economy was much better than the national economy. That was evident for years, part of the reason for Jeb's big re-election number in '02, and demonstrated by the 60% excellent or good in the Florida exit polls, regarding the state economy. That same Florida exit poll had Bush at 54% approval, well above his national figure.

It's called trip handicapping, understanding how the race was run to emphasize or downplay characteristics within the numbers. Ohio 2004 had a terrible state economy. That state is still 2-4 points red leaning compared to the nation itself, with no demographic swing our way similar to Virginia or Colorado. We had a rare chance to steal Ohio in 2004 since the pathetic state economy meant it would likely fall very close to the national popular vote margin, and not 2-4 points GOP. That's exactly what happened but Kerry's 3-point lag nationwide pushed Ohio outside our grasp. On the other hand (sorry), Florida's much better than average state economy in 2004 means the +2.55 Republican partisan index of 2004 is baloney. Most likely it is still extremely close to the nation itself, evidenced by the fractional variance from the national popular vote percentages in both '96 and '00.

Statewide the Republicans had roughly 4000 more new registers than Democrats between 2000 and 2004 in Florida. Other than these Democratic strongholds, the GOP outregistered us by 123,000. That's the missing rural strength Rove prioritized post-2000.

Here are the registration figures prior to the general election, 2000 and 2004, and also the vote totals and percentages:

* Broward
2000:
Democrats: 456,789 (note: every time I've looked at that since 2000 it strikes me as sequentially bizarre)
Republicans: 266,829

2004:
Democrats: 533,976
Republicans: 283,736

Actual Vote:
2000: Gore (68%) 387,760 Bush (31%) 177,939
2004: Kerry (64%) 453,873 Bush (35%) 244,674

* Miami-Dade
2000:
Democrats: 396,518
Republicans: 338.874

2004:
Democrats:453,631
Republicans:368,334

Actual Vote:
2000: Gore (53%) 328,867 Bush (47%) 289,574
2004: Kerry (53%) 409,732 Bush (47%) 361,095

* Palm Beach
2000:
Democrats: 295,185
Republicans: 231,233

2004:
Democrats: 329,232
Republicans:233,495

Actual Vote:
2000: Gore (64%) 269,754 Bush (36%) 152,964
2004: Gore (61%) 328,687 Bush (39%) 212,688