Reply #4: the professionals include whom? Do I and those with similar math

[papau]

backgrounds on DU count - indeed the exit poll research folks - including those published in peer review and in the media re last election are here on DU. Or is a ssrc blessing required?

Sorry but http://elections.ssrc.org/research/ExitPollReport031005.pdf well written as it is and as accurate as it is does not mean squat since it it simply accepts the Mitofsky analysis that has been shown to be based on bad logic and does not reflect the release last week of a real analysis of the precinct level data with bias analysis.

The Palestinian results are not outside nominal margins of error if the model is just wrong - which is the 'Shy Tories' problem. As to 'Shy Tories' , the literature has a great deal of discussion of the error in the model in Great Britain that underestimated the Tory vote in an election.

"actually disregard the fact that the estimates incorporate prior returns" in model building is new to me, but then I am rather old and have not done any paying work in this are for decades.

the meme that 'exit polls are so accurate, they are used around the world to verify the accuracy of elections.' seems well and healthy - unless our CIA gets involved as they did in Venezuela - as to the Ukraine my sources have not said we screwed with their exit polls.