Reluctant Hamas Responders? (was: Shy Tories?)

[foo_bar]

Wednesday:

An exit poll broadcast by Israel's Channel 2 TV showed Fatah getting 43 percent to 32 percent for Hamas.

http://www.mantecabulletin.com/articles/2006/01/25/ap/headlines/d8fbtbig6.txt

Islamic militant group Hamas was forecast to have won 42 percent of the vote in Wednesday's Palestinian election, just behind 45 percent for President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah, a new exit poll showed.

The exit poll by an-Najah University in the occupied West Bank city of Nablus showed Hamas closing the gap with Fatah. Earlier exit polls forecast Hamas winning over 30 percent of the vote, compared to more than 40 percent for Fatah.

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-01-25T200104Z_01_L20602990_RTRUKOC_0_US-MIDEAST.xml

An exit poll by Bir Zeit University in Ramallah, showed Fatah winning 63 seats in the 132 member parliament with 46.4% of the vote and Hamas taking 58 with 39.5 per cent.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=127422006

So we've got Fatah +11%, Fatah +6.9%, and Fatah +3% according to three sets of exit polls (edit: the +11% TV one seems to be a telephone poll, not a straight up exit poll). They can't all be right, so we turn to our crystal ball:

Officials in the ruling Fatah Party said Thursday that Hamas captured a majority of seats in Palestinian legislative elections, shortly after the militant group claimed victory.

The Fatah officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they expected Hamas to win about 70 seats, which would give the Islamists a majority in the 132-seat parliament. They spoke on condition of anonymity because counting in some districts was continuing.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1542931

Exit polls released after voting ended late on Wednesday had forecast that while Hamas would deprive Fatah of the clear majority that it has enjoyed since the parliament was first elected a decade ago, it would still only come second.

By Thursday, however, Fatah was conceding that the result would be even worse.

"Hamas has beaten Fatah in the elections," said one senior official, who stood for election to the Ramallah-based parliament.

"They have won more seats than us in the legislative council," another candidate, who was a senior member of the Fatah campaign, said.

http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?id=14127906

Could all three exit polls be wrong (outside the MoE)? Flame on. :nuke: