Reply #11: Too late to Edit...slight adjustment to Party ID weights

[TruthIsAll]

Peace Patriot explains convincingly why if there was a
Reluctant Republican Responder, he or she was most likely a
Kerry voter (rRrK). That makes a lot of sense, intuitively
and mathematically. We should adjust the exit poll to account
for that famous 56-50% differential response.

If one analyzes the 13047 Exit Poll (the Final 13660 has been
proven IMPOSSIBLE), one quickly sees that it does not reflect
powerful anecdotal evidence that significantly more
Republicans voted for Kerry than Democrats voted for Bush.
Peace Patriot has just told us why.

This is the Exit Poll of 13047 respondents (w/o rRrK)				
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%	
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	1%	100.0%	
Independent	27%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%	
	        100%	47.77%	50.69%	1.54%	100.0%
            122.26	58.40	61.97	1.88

The odds that Bush would go from 47.77% to 50.73%: 
            1 in	303 million!

Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4777,0.01/1.96,TRUE)					

Adjusting the calculation to assume that 3% rRrK (and 10% of
all Republicans) voted for Kerry, with a corresponding
increase in Republican Party ID to 36%):						

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	36%	89%	10%	1%	100.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%
	        100%	47.16%	51.32%	1.52%	100.0%
	      122.26	57.66	62.74	1.86	

	Odds: 1 in 761 billion!