A Must Read ** Breakthrough ** – EXIT POLL ANALYSIS FOR 47 STATES

[althecat]

A Must Read ** Breakthrough ** – EXIT POLL ANALYSIS FOR 47 STATES

The following comes via a friend of GregD's - he only has one post so far – this one…. So I am posting it to a new thread. It deserves it. The following t is in short MIND BLOWINGLY USEFUL. It takes TIA and Faun Otter's initial analysis of the Exit Poll data to another level of sophistication and depth. It is a must read for everybody on this forum.

Please keep this kicked and say hello to new DUer JS

Al

**********

To Those Who Seek Information As A Basis For Action Regarding Bush's "Victory":

I examined the discrepancies between the actual vote tabulations as reported and the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results in 47 states, incl. D.C. (in 4 states—NJ,NY,NC,VA—I did not have early exit poll results available, and the later results had already been amended to reflect input of actual vote totals, which rendered them corrupt as exit polls and useless for the purpose of checking the veracity of actual vote totals).

I noticed an overall red shift (to Bush) across the spectrum of states, but the shift was significantly nonuniform.

Having divided the 47 states examined into two groups, 35 noncritical states and 12 critical or suspect states (Nebraska included because of ES&S control and prior anomalies even though not a battleground state), I calculated that the average discrepancy in the 35 safe states was a +1.4% red shift, that is the average of the vote totals in each state was 1.4% more favorable to Bush than what the exit polls predicted (= total movement of 2.8%). In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. This in spite of the fact that the average sample size in the critical states was nearly twice that in the noncritical states and should have produced significantly more accurate results.

Further, assuming a 3% margin of error and 95% confidence interval for each state poll (the standard Mitofksy protocol, but a conservative assumption here, since the sample sizes were significantly increased in critical states), the red shift exceeded the margin of error in 4 of the 12 critical states (and equalled it in a fifth). The chance of this occurring in 4 of the 12 states in the absence of "mistabulation" can be computed using a simple probability equation and is approximately 0.002 or one in five-hundred. It's a relatively crude analysis and better analysis would have to wait on more complete data, but basically what it's telling us is that we can say with 99.8% certainty that "mistabulation" played some significant role in this election.

<big> From the specific discrepancies in Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico; from the amazing voter turnout, which any analyst on truth serum will admit should have guaranteed a Kerry victory; from what we know, but the media has now chosen to forget, about how suspect and partisan the vote counting equipment is; and from pieces of circumstantial evidence, such as Bush not deigning to campaign in Ohio (crazy unless the fix was in): we can be all but certain that another election has been stolen and that the toilet has been flushed on our democracy.</big>

Kerry, inanely, has conceded. But the truth remains to be dug out to lie in the light and stink in the open air. If we can do no more, let's at least make sure we don't rest until we have done that.


—J onathan Simon (Alliance for Democracy)

Please provide me all of the data you were able to obtain – including non-critical states.

I forwarded your previous information to a correspondent at AP – AP is supposed to have all of the raw data that the exit poll people were providing to the media.

Chuck

— Here are the rest. See if you can get your hands on the early exit poll results, the earlier the better, as they would be uncontaminated. Warren Mitofsky meanwhile says that he knew in the afternoon that his exit polls were off in nine states, but this does not sit well with me (I'd need to know how he would know at that point and, assuming he knew, why he would go ahead and promulgate them without caveat?). Way too much work went into getting the exit polls right this time for me to just accept that they can't do as well as they were doing routinely in the 80s and 90s. It is not, like stained glass, a lost art.

Critical States (12)

Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%

Note: Red Shift = <(Btab% - Bep%) + (Kep% - Ktab)>/2 tab= tabulated vote, ep=exit poll

The number is positive with net movement toward Bush, negative (blue shift) with net movement toward Kerry. I'll take Florida (early) as an example:

Exit Poll % : B=49.8% K=49.7%

Tab (99% precincts) B=52% K=47%

Red Shift: <(52% - 49.8%) + (49.7% - 47%)>/2 = (2.2% + 2.7%)/2 = +2.5%

I'm aware that I've played fast and loose with significant figures; a more refined analysis would get at least one more sig fig out of the tabulated.

State B K #Resp Time Red Shift

Colorado 49.9 48.1 2515 12:24 AM 2.6%

Florida 49.8 49.7 2846 12:21 2.5

(Florida 51.4 47.6 2862 1:01 0.6 )

Michigan 46.5 51.5 2452 12:21 1.0

Minnesota 44.5 53.5 2178 12:23 3.0

Nebraska 62.5 36.0 785 12:22 4.3

(Nebraska "critical" because of ES&S dominance and history)

Nevada 47.9 49.2 2116 12:23 2.2

New Hamp. 44.1 54.9 1849 12:24 4.9

New Mex. 47.5 50.1 1951 12:24 1.8

Ohio 47.9 52.1 1963 7:32 PM 3.1

(Ohio 50.9 48.6 2020 1:41 AM 0.3)

Penn 45.4 54.1 1930 12:21 3.4

Wisconsin 48.8 49.2 2223 12:21 (-)0.3

Iowa 48.4 49.7 2502 12:23 2.0

12 (Critical) State Average Red Shift +2.5%

Note that because of rolling updates, some states may have been relatively pure at c. 12:20-12:25, while others may already have been slightly corrupted. My guess is that most of these were still OK at these times.

Non-Critical States (35)

Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%

Alabama 58.1 40.5 730 12:17 AM 4.2

Alaska 57.8 38.8 910 01:00 AM 4.0 (keep in mind AK time zone, this is still early)

Arizona 52.8 46.7 1859 12:19 2.5

Arkansas 52.9 46.1 1402 12:22 1.1

Calif 46.6 54.6 1919 12:23 (-)1.5

CT 40.9 57.7 872 12:22 3.4

(CT 44.4 54.7 872 12:53) 0.2

DC 8.2 89.8 795 12:22 0.3

Delaware 40.7 57.3 770 12:22 4.8

Georgia 56.6 42.9 1536 12:22 2.2

Hawaii 46.7 53.3 499 12:22 (-)1.2

Idaho 65.7 32.9 559 12:22 2.6

Illinois 42.4 56.6 1392 12:23 1.6

Indiana 58.4 40.6 926 12:22 1.6

Kansas 64.5 34.1 654 12:22 (-)2.7

Kentucky 58.4 40.2 1034 12:22 0.9

Louisiana 54.7 43.9 1669 12:21 2.1

Maine 44.3 53.8 1968 12:22 0.8

Maryland 42.3 56.2 1000 12:22 0.5

Mass 32.9 65.2 889 12:22 3.7

Miss 56.5 43.0 798 12:22 3.3

Missouri 52.0 47.0 2158 12:21 1.5

Montana 58.0 37.5 640 12:22 (-)0.3

ND 64.4 32.6 649 12:22 (-)2.4

OK 65.0 34.6 1539 12:23 0.8

Oregon 47.9 50.3 1064 12:22 (-)1.3

RI 34.9 62.7 809 12:22 3.4

SC 53.4 45.1 1735 12:24 4.4

SD 61.0 36.5 1495 12:24 (-)1.8

Tenn 58.0 40.6 1774 12:23 (-)1.7

Texas 62.2 36.3 1671 12:22 (-)2.0

Utah 68.1 29.1 798 12:22 2.5

Vermont 33.3 63.7 685 12:22 5.2

Wash 44.0 54.1 2123 12:38 1.6

WV 54.0 44.5 1722 12:24 1.8

Wyoming 65.5 30.9 684 12:22 2.7

35 (NonCritical) State Average Red Shift +1.4

The following state data was obtained too late and highly contaminated with actual tabulation results:

NJ 46.2 52.8 1520 12:50 (-)0.2

NY 40.9 58.2 1452 12:52 (-)0.4

NC 56.5 42.7 2167 12:48 (-)0.4

Virginia 54.1 45.4 1431 12:56 (-)0.4

Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the critical states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192, roughly half the size. All else being equal, higher sample size correlates with smaller margin of error, greater accuracy. And yet: the average Red Shift in the noncritical states is 1.4%, but in the critical states it is 2.5%.

Why? Hard evidence must be found to account for this egregious statistical pattern and to prove the actual fraud.This preliminary analysis is fairly crude, and there are probably other, more telling ways to slice and dice the data. Also, note that there were three exit poll "sweeps" which led to updates around 4 pm, 8 pm, 12 midnight, following which the "exit polls" were really contaminated by tabulated data and of no use at all as a check mechanism. I caught mostly the third sweep here (c. 12:20 am); my guess is the second sweep would show even more dramatic discrepancies. While the first sweep has come under skeptical attack for having a too great female (pro-Kerry) weighting (the figure I heard was 58%/42% female), it is at least plausible to me that morning/daytime voters would be disproportionately female because of work schedules, so it may well be just one of the specious rationalizations behind a very determined coverup (we just don't know).

Cheers—Jonathan Simon

—Jonathan Simon