State Exit Poll/Vote Statistical Update

[TruthIsAll]

 
This is an update/correction of the 2-party exit poll/vote
analysis.

Note the correction:
Fifteen (15) states deviated to Bush beyond the MOE.
I originally calculated 16 (using Nov. 3 data), then using
current vote data, I calculated it incorrectly last week as
20. 

Total	2-party votes: 121,056
(in thousands of votes)

42 of 50 states deviated to Bush
The probability is 0.0000005818
The odds are 1 in 1.719 million

15 states deviated beyond the MOE to Bush
The probability is 0.0000000000009166
The odds are 1 in 1.091 trillion

4 States flipped from Kerry to Bush (FL, OH, IA, NM)	

Kerry (2-party): 
Actual Vote: 59,085 (48.81%) 
Exit Poll:   60,997 (50.39%)	
Deviation:  1.912 million votes


Bush (2-party): 
Actual Vote: 61,971 (51.19%) 
Exit Poll: 60,059 (49.61%) 

Average MOE: 2.85%	
Average Net Deviation from Kerry to Bush: 1.73%
				
……	Votes	Poll	Poll	Poll	Vote	Vote	Poll	Dev.	Dev.	Dev	>2.0%Flip	Dev.	Vote	Poll	Vote	Poll
……	(000)	Size	MOE	Kerry	Kerry	Bush	Dev.	/MOE	>MOE	Bush	Bush	Bush	(000)	Kerry	Kerry	Bush	Bush
AK	302	910	3.31%	40.50%	36.77%	63.23%	-3.73%	112%	YES	YES	YES		-11	111	122	191	180
AL	1,870	730	3.70%	41.00%	37.10%	62.90%	-3.90%	105%	YES	YES	YES		-73	694	767	1,176	1,103
AR	1,998	1402	2.67%	46.60%	45.07%	54.93%	-1.53%	57%		YES			-31	900	931	1,097	1,067
AZ	1,043	1859	2.32%	47.00%	44.72%	55.28%	-2.28%	98%		YES	YES		-24	467	490	577	553
CA	12,255	1919	2.28%	54.00%	55.04%	44.96%	1.04%	46%					128	6,745	6,618	5,510	5,637

CO	2,103	2515	1.99%	49.10%	47.63%	52.37%	-1.47%	74%		YES			-31	1,002	1,033	1,101	1,070
CT	1,551	872	3.39%	58.50%	55.27%	44.73%	-3.23%	95%		YES	YES		-50	857	908	694	644
DC	372	795	3.55%	91.00%	90.52%	9.48%	-0.48%	14%		YES			-2	337	338	35	33
DE	224	770	3.60%	58.50%	53.83%	46.17%	-4.67%	130%	YES	YES	YES		-10	121	131	104	93
FL	7,548	2846	1.87%	50.50%	47.48%	52.52%	-3.02%	161%	YES	YES	YES	YES	-228	3,584	3,812	3,965	3,736

GA	3,280	1536	2.55%	43.00%	41.65%	58.35%	-1.35%	53%		YES			-44	1,366	1,411	1,914	1,870
HI	426	499	4.48%	53.30%	54.40%	45.60%	1.10%	25%					5	232	227	194	199
IA	1,494	2502	2.00%	50.60%	49.66%	50.34%	-0.94%	47%		YES		YES	-14	742	756	752	738
ID	590	559	4.23%	33.50%	30.68%	69.32%	-2.82%	67%		YES	YES		-17	181	198	409	393
IL	5,239	1392	2.68%	57.00%	55.21%	44.79%	-1.79%	67%		YES			-94	2,892	2,986	2,347	2,253

IN	2,448	926	3.29%	41.00%	39.58%	60.42%	-1.42%	43%		YES			-35	969	1,004	1,479	1,445
KS	1,171	654	3.91%	35.00%	37.13%	62.87%	2.13%	55%					25	435	410	736	761
KY	1,782	1034	3.11%	41.00%	39.99%	60.01%	-1.01%	32%		YES			-18	713	731	1,069	1,051
LA	1,922	1669	2.45%	44.50%	42.67%	57.33%	-1.83%	75%		YES			-35	820	855	1,102	1,067
MA	2,875	889	3.35%	66.00%	62.74%	37.26%	-3.26%	97%		YES	YES		-94	1,804	1,897	1,071	977

MD	2,359	1000	3.16%	57.00%	56.57%	43.43%	-0.43%	14%		YES			-10	1,334	1,345	1,025	1,014
ME	727	1968	2.25%	54.70%	54.58%	45.42%	-0.12%	5%		YES			-1	397	398	330	329
MI	4,793	2452	2.02%	52.50%	51.73%	48.27%	-0.77%	38%		YES			-37	2,479	2,516	2,314	2,277
MN	2,792	2178	2.14%	54.50%	51.76%	48.24%	-2.74%	128%	YES	YES	YES		-76	1,445	1,521	1,347	1,270
MO	2,715	2158	2.15%	47.50%	46.38%	53.62%	-1.12%	52%		YES			-30	1,259	1,290	1,456	1,425

MS	1,130	798	3.54%	43.30%	40.49%	59.51%	-2.81%	79%		YES	YES		-32	458	489	673	641
MT	440	640	3.95%	39.80%	39.50%	60.50%	-0.30%	8%		YES			-1	174	175	266	265
NC	3,487	2167	2.15%	48.00%	43.76%	56.24%	-4.24%	197%	YES	YES	YES		-148	1,526	1,674	1,961	1,813
ND	308	649	3.93%	34.00%	36.09%	63.91%	2.09%	53%					6	111	105	197	203
NE	767	785	3.57%	36.80%	33.15%	66.85%	-3.65%	102%	YES	YES	YES		-28	254	282	513	485

NH	672	1849	2.33%	55.40%	50.69%	49.31%	-4.71%	203%	YES	YES	YES		-32	341	372	331	300
NJ	3,581	1520	2.56%	55.00%	53.37%	46.63%	-1.63%	64%		YES			-58	1,911	1,970	1,670	1,612
NM	748	1951	2.26%	51.30%	49.60%	50.40%	-1.70%	75%		YES		YES	-13	371	384	377	364
NV	816	2116	2.17%	49.40%	48.68%	51.32%	-0.72%	33%		YES			-6	397	403	419	413
NY	7,277	1452	2.62%	63.00%	59.29%	40.71%	-3.71%	141%	YES	YES	YES		-270	4,314	4,584	2,963	2,692

OH	5,599	1963	2.26%	52.10%	48.94%	51.06%	-3.16%	140%	YES	YES	YES	YES	-177	2,740	2,917	2,859	2,682
OK	1,464	1539	2.55%	35.00%	34.43%	65.57%	-0.57%	22%		YES			-8	504	512	960	951
OR	1,810	1064	3.07%	51.20%	52.11%	47.89%	0.91%	30%					16	943	927	867	883
PA	5,732	1930	2.28%	54.30%	51.26%	48.74%	-3.04%	134%	YES	YES	YES		-174	2,938	3,112	2,794	2,619
RI	429	809	3.52%	64.00%	60.58%	39.42%	-3.42%	97%		YES	YES		-15	260	274	169	154

SC	1,600	1735	2.40%	46.00%	41.36%	58.64%	-4.64%	193%	YES	YES	YES		-74	662	736	938	864
SD	382	1495	2.59%	37.80%	39.09%	60.91%	1.29%	50%					5	149	144	233	237
TN	2,421	1774	2.37%	41.50%	42.81%	57.19%	1.31%	55%					32	1,036	1,005	1,384	1,416
TX	7,360	1671	2.45%	37.00%	38.49%	61.51%	1.49%	61%					110	2,833	2,723	4,527	4,637
UT	905	798	3.54%	30.50%	26.65%	73.35%	-3.85%	109%	YES	YES	YES		-35	241	276	664	629

VA	3,172	1431	2.64%	48.00%	45.87%	54.13%	-2.13%	81%		YES	YES		-68	1,455	1,522	1,717	1,649
VT	305	685	3.82%	65.00%	60.30%	39.70%	-4.70%	123%	YES	YES	YES		-14	184	198	121	107
WA	2,815	2123	2.17%	54.90%	53.65%	46.35%	-1.25%	58%		YES			-35	1,510	1,545	1,305	1,270
WI	2,968	2223	2.12%	52.50%	50.19%	49.81%	-2.31%	109%	YES	YES	YES		-68	1,490	1,558	1,478	1,410
WV	750	1722	2.41%	45.30%	43.52%	56.48%	-1.78%	74%		YES			-13	327	340	424	410
WY	238	684	3.82%	30.90%	29.69%	70.31%	-1.21%	32%		YES			-3	71	74	168	165
																	
Avg	2,374	1443	2.85%	48.81%	50.39%	51.19%	-1.73%	79%									
Med	1,782	1495	2.59%	49.10%	47.48%	52.52%	-1.70%	67%									
Total	121,056	73,607							15	43	22	4	-1,912	59,085	60,997	61,971	60,059
Diff													-1.58%	48.81%	50.39%	51.19%	49.61%