Reply #1: Truth Is All posted this --

[Zan_of_Texas]

I don't have the link, but here is the post.

Truth is All DU 12 26 04

THE NATIONAL VOTE/EXIT POLL TIMELINE
AND THE OHIO/FLORIDA EXIT POLL DISCREPANCIES.

NATIONAL VOTE
9:06PM: Bush was winning the popular vote: 54.8% - 45.2%
Kerry was winning the exit polls: 50.8% - 47.8%
How could this be?
Popular Vote (in millions) Time Bush Pct Kerry Pct 8:50pm 6.59 55.7% 5.24 44.3% 9:00pm 8.28 55.3% 6.70 44.7% 9:06pm 9.26 54.8% 7.65 45.2%
NATIONAL EXIT POLL 9:06pm: Bush Kerry Women 54% 45% 54% Men 46% 51% 47% Total 100% 47.76% 50.78%
Very strange, very strange.
*************************************************
OHIO
At 7:32PM, Kerry was winning both the male AND female exit polls
Of 1963 polled, Kerry led by 52.1-47.9%
By 1:41AM, the numbers had reversed. Of 2020 polled, Bush led 50.9-48.6%
How could this have occurred with an increase of only 57 polled?
Very strange, very strange.
7:32PM 1963 Polled Bush Kerry
Women 53% 47% 53%
Men 47% 49% 51%
Total 100% 47.94% 52.06%

1:41AM 2020 Polled Bush Kerry
Women 53% 50% 50%
Men 47% 52% 47%
Total 100% 50.94% 48.59%
*****************************************************
FLORIDA
At 8:40PM, Kerry led the women polled: 52-47%
Of 2846 polled, Kerry led 49.7-49.3%
By 1:01AM, the situation had reversed.
Of 2862 polled, Bush led 51.4-47.6%
How could this have occurred with an increase of only 16 polled?
Very strange, very strange.
8:40PM 2846 Polled Bush Kerry
Women 54% 47% 52%
Men 46% 52% 47%
Total 100% 49.30% 49.70%

1:01AM 2862 Polled Bush Kerry
Women 54% 50% 49%
Men 46% 53% 46%
Total 100% 51.38% 47.62%

~~~~~~~~~
Truth is All
To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:
1. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.

2. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.

3. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 41 out of 51 states.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 135,000.

4. That his vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 16 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 13.5 trillion.

5. That his vote tallies could exceed a 2% exit poll margin of error in 23 states.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

6. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

7. That Mitofsky, with 25 years of experience, has lost his exit polling touch.

8. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.