Reply #5: The Nielsen Poll, run by Fairfax, is generally regarded as more reliable than Newspoll.

[Matilda]

Newspoll focussed on the question of the proposed minerals tax, and I don't really believe that people in states other than W.A. and Queensland will base their vote on this issue, because it's not going to affect them personally.

It's hard not to think that it was the dropping of the ETS proposal, not just now but for the second term, that has done Rudd in; otherwise, votes would not be bleeding from Labor to the Greens at the rate they are (70%).

Rudd is still ahead as preferred leader, and that must worry the Coalition, because when it comes to actually ticking the boxes, that will have a big influence. People will put their emotions behind them, and think more logically about who they really want to see in charge, and that will also result in a loss of potential votes for the Greens, who always poll better between elections than they ever do on the day. I think a lot of conservative voters are also worried about Abbott and that may also translate into them giving Rudd another go. But it will be very, very tight.

And it really shouldn't be like this – until the announcement about dropping the ETS, Labor looked set to win about the same number of seats as 2007, and probably pick up one extra in the Senate. That isn't going to happen now.