Reply #55: I never said that Greene county and Cincinnati were alike....

[WCGreen]

What I did say was they were in the same general area of Ohio...

Sure Cincinnati proper is democratic, but the surrounding country side is not....

Be that as it may, let's take a look at some numbers...

In 2005, the special election attracted 115576 voters in that race.
In 2004, the general election attracted 316760 voters in that race.

That means the whole race generated 36.48% of the total votes cast in 2004.

In 2005, the special election attracted 115576 voters in that race.
In 2002, the general election attracted 118016 voters in that race.

That means the whole race generated 61.47% of the total votes cast in 2002.

2002 is a more prescient comparison because that was the first year after a redistricting. So Portman had to run in some new areas. Looking inside the numbers, Charles Sanders, the democratic candidate in 2002, garnered 48785 votes by spending little to no money. A thinking person could say that was the hard core dem vote in that race. The 2005 special election, Hackett earned 55886 votes. So Hackett was able to motivate the base, and attracted a good chunk of people who normally called themselves independents.

I say the dems were far more motivated than the republicans, it's the way these things happen. I also say that since it was the only game in town, the people took notice who normally wouldn't.

There you have the numbers. The turnout will be higher since there will be a competitive race for the governors office this time around.

And please do not bring up the Diebold shit. If there is a problem, it is there and we have to deal with the reality. Having a scapegoat going in is not a healthy way to run a campaign.