Who said Clark doesn't have the Money?: Clark, Dean, and Campaign Finance

[LoneStarDem]

This is a spin-off of an answer on whether Clark can raise enough money.
Most of this analysis is off-the-cuff; someone please fact-check me if I'm wrong. In addition to the below, I went googling for more info as to the splits in convention times and how it effects the money race, but I couldn't find much. If anyone has any information, such as when you can start dipping into GE funds or whether or not Shrub can actually use primary funds to smear the Dem candidate, I'd be much obliged. Anyway...

(joined in progress)

What I think you're missing is that Clark's late entry actually *helps* him in terms of reaching the convention under the cap. To date his burn rate has been incredibly low (the third quarter was around 100k total, I know, because he was only in it for a few weeks). If we disregard the matching funds for now, he has taken in about 15-16mil, mostly in the fourth quarter. I haven't been able to track down how much he spent Q4, but lets say a generous 8mil. Assuming he can pull down the entire 45mil, that leaves 37mil to get him from Jan to July, seven months. That gives him 5.3mil per month or almost 15.9mil per quarter, more than anyone has even *raised* in a quarter. He's fine. Dean, no shame on him, had to opt out; because of his previous quarters of spending, he really would have been screwed.
Dean Expen:
Q1: 0.7mil
Q2: 3.3mil
Q3: 8.8mil
Q4: ? (Call it another 8mil)

Total: 20.8mil

Which would have left him just 24.2mil for seven months if he had stayed under the cap. As it stands, at the end of Q3 he had about 12.5mil in cash on hand. If we go with the above numbers (15mil in, 8mil out) that leaves him with about 20mil on hand going into January. *If* he can do another 15mil/Q for the next two quarters, that will give him a comfy ~7.2mil a month, or 21 and change a quarter. But, that is assuming present contribution levels can be sustained and that he doesn't run into a wall of either stagnating support or maxed out donors. Of course, the same goes for Clark, but he does get that nice matched funds nest egg every quarter. As it stands, Dean does have something of an advantage as far as long term funding (maybe), but it's not the disparity that some have made it out to be.