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Alright, electoral run-down [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-07-04 06:00 PM
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Alright, electoral run-down
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I'm just looking at that http://www.electoral-vote.com/, where at the moment Kerry has a commanding lead in EVs.

However, the site breaks down the leads visually into "strong," "weak," and "barely." The states with strong leads we can be pretty sure Kerry is going to win (barring something drastic happening). You can look at the site to check out the size of his lead. These states are:

California (55 EV)
Connecticut (7)
D.C. (3)
Delaware (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17) <---I'm not so confident on this one, for some reason
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)

Add those up and we've got 185 pretty darned solid EVs, which leaves us with 85 more to get to 270 and the win.

My question is: with these new numbers, which battleground/weak Kerry states are most likely to go to Kerry? Which are the surest states that will get us those 85 EVs?
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