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Reply #171: Hate to pile on, but I was thinking the same thing... [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
liberalcommontater Donating Member (591 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 07:22 PM
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171. Hate to pile on, but I was thinking the same thing...
A Democrat must win in November. What if Obama can't? These two quotes are from cannonfire.

This is from Left Coaster:
Let's close with some observations on Nebraska. Nebraska held a primary yesterday not just for the Republican party but also for the Democratic party - the latter being irrelevant when it comes to delegates but important to assess the impact of caucuses v. primaries. When Nebraska held its Democratic caucus on Super Tuesday (Feb), the turnout was around 38760 and Sen. Obama won the caucus 68%-32%, giving him a popular vote margin of almost 14000 votes. Yesterday, the primary attracted 93161 voters and the result was 49-47% in favor of Sen. Obama, with Mike Gravel taking up the remaining 4%. In other words, a 36-point caucus victory was reduced to a 2-point primary victory for Sen. Obama along with a much lower popular vote margin of just ~2600 votes.

This is from Anglachel:

In contest after contest, we see him failing to turn out the massive numbers that his allegedly unstoppable movement says they command. We see dominance in highly restrictive caucuses. We see him turning out super-majorities of AA voters. We see him dominating urban areas where you have upper income liberals. We see the college aged children of those liberal families voting in university areas.

Help me out here to see what I am not seeing. If this is true and he loses the states in the GE that he won by caucus and he loses some of the big states won by Hillary, where does victory come from?

Look also here at the electoral college projections:
http://www.electoral-vote.com /

It looks like Obama will be the nominee, but is that a sure defeat?
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