Reply #37: April 20 -- Obama takes back the lead in the Gallup tracking poll, 47--45.

[tiptoe]

TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FatLadyClearing.htm

April 20, 2008

At the height of the Rev. Wright flap on March 15, Clinton led in PA by 53–36. The PA 5-poll moving average () indicates that it’s very close: Clinton now leads by: 47.0–43.0. View the full set of polls at Real Clear Politics. There are still 2 days to go before the primary. Obama could very well win in PA — but only if the votes are fairly counted.

Obama is leading the RCP moving average of national polls, 49.2–40.7. Obama has taken back the lead 47–45 in the Gallup tracking poll and holds a 46–42 lead in Rasmussen. A Newsweek outlier poll gives Obama a 19 point lead, 54–35!


How will the 10-12% of voters who are undecided break? Clinton has been in the public arena since 1992. Obama became a national figure in 2004, when he gave the Democratic convention keynote speech a few months before being elected to the Senate. For this reason, Clinton can be considered as the pseudo-incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton’s negatives are much higher than Obama’s. In their final 2004 poll, Gallup allocated 90% of late undecideds to Kerry. Zogby and Harris estimated that 67-80% would break for Kerry.

Assuming that 75% of undecided voters will break for Obama, he is leading the adjusted PA 5-poll average () by 50.5–49.5.
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