Reply #18: In my heart, I hope your brother returns to relative safety...

[punpirate]

... but I think neither Bush nor Kerry will allow him to return any time soon.

Both are hawks.

In truth, none of the VP candidates will have any final say about the date on which the troops will leave Iraq. None of them, so how does that improve your brother's odds?

The VP choice, right now, has only to do with how the public votes. Of all the possible choices available to Kerry, it seems to me he will choose the most hawkish-appearing running mate to counter Bush's militarism. I think that's why there's been so much talk, scurrilous and otherwise, about McCain, who is very hawkish, indeed.

Still, we have a slightly better chance of getting troops out with Kerry, than with Bush. Given the mood of the country right now, someone who is not a hawk as VP might give the country hope that troops would be withdrawn sooner than later.

Kerry will not pick the obvious non-hawks, such as Kucinich, unless backed into a corner at the convention. That leaves people like Edwards, and Wesley Clark, and no other major contenders. Of them, I'd take Edwards to be the one to nudge Kerry away from a prolonged stay in Iraq. I simply don't think a soldier such as Clark will be inclined to do the same, without at least the appearance of victory.

Kerry is already making statements that he won't withdraw troops anytime soon, and that will only cause continued bloodshed on both sides, for no good reason. For the sake of the election, and the aftermath, the country needs someone who is much less aggressive about war. Kucinich would be an ideal in that regard, but neither Kerry nor the electorate will take him seriously.

If Kerry chooses Clark, Kerry will continue to pursue a military solution too long after that option has disappeared. In fact, it already has, because the "liberators" have been for too long an occupying force--nothing less than their removal will satisfy the Iraqis.

Of the few choices, I'm afraid to say, Edwards is about the only one who might push Kerry toward abandoning Bush's bad wars and finding an interim diplomatic solution. For all of Clark's complaints about the war being wrong, I don't see him making clear statements that we need to get out and leave the international community to straightening out the mess the Bushies have made of Iraq--and Afghanistan (although I might have missed any recent statements of his to that effect).

But, one thing is for sure--maintaining a US military presence in Iraq will continue to inflame the Iraqis, who have virtually no trust in the US now to do the right thing--and Kerry should be picking the person who can help him extricate our troops from Iraq as quickly and as gracefully as possible.

If you have a better candidate than Edwards for that task, be sure to let Kerry know.

Cheers.