The latest Cleveland PD poll for Bush v Kerry

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http://www.cleveland.com/election/agate.ssf?/election/pdpoll.html

The overall break down is Bush 47, Kerry 41, Nader 3, Undecided 9. The MOE is 2.6% which means that Bush is statistically ahead by at least 0.8%. But the news isn't all bad for us. Bush isn't at 50% and the undecideds are likely to break for Kerry.

The favorable/unfavorable/neutral is:

Bush 48, 35, 17
Kerry 33, 32, 35
Nader 11, 37, 51

The top three reasons Bush voters give for voting for him are

53% like his charcter and integrity
28% agree with his conduct of the war on terror
18% Don't trust Democrats

The top three reasons Kerry voters vote for him are

62% Hate Bush
21% Like Kerry's issues and policies
16% Like his character and integrity

Among African Americans the split is 15 to 73 to 4in favor of Kerry. In contrast there are a few wards on the east side of Cleveland and in East Cleveland (both nearly all African American) in which Bush got 0 votes in 2000.

Among Latino Americans the split is 46 to 36 to 9 in favor of Bush.

On the plus side the economy trumps the war on terror as an issue 32 to 15.

end of synopsis

I hate to make this an I told you so post but I am entitled here. Virtually every criticism I had of the Kerry campaign in Ohio is borne out here. He hasn't sold a positive image of himself, he is doing relatively poorly among minorities, and he isn't exiting people to vote for him. Either all of Ohio is made up of bitter Dean supporters which we know isn't true or maybe, just maybe, I was telling you truth as I saw it and maybe, just maybe, I was right. Kerry can turn this around. The economy here sucks and will still suck on election day. 35% of the people still are neutral toward him. But the time for denial is over. If this is the Florida of 2004 it is time for Kerry to step it up here.