Reply #2: Adjusted Figures (probable, with Gore factor accounted for):

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

AP/IPSOS seems to have decided to keep Gore in this polling set for consistency. Fortunately we have enough other polling (including other AP/IPSOS sets) to know where Gore's support goes.

Oddly, Gore's support does not skew for any candidate. It is divided in direct proportion to candidate's current support--most goes to Clinto, next most to Obama, etc.. (This is not my theory. It's a fact. I find it surprising, but it's been confirmed a zillion times in polls that ask both ways)

So, without Gore these numbers work out to Clinton 48%, Obama 23%, Edwards 14%. (The following post shows that I am wrong. It is 46-25-11, but I will not edit out my error because I desrve to pay for being such a lazy dumass!)

This suggests that the Washington Post poll was an outlier (as everyone knew) but not by much.

Today's poll confirms a solid (7%) Clinton move in the last 7-10 days, with the move coming from a combination of Dems switching from Obama and previous undecideds picking Clinton for the first time.

Edwards support stays steady, and no moves in the lower tier.