Reply #7: Obama, Edwards and Iowa.

[Tom Rinaldo]

Like most things, it's a matter of degree how their relative finish there will effect the national race. But it is common knowledge that Edwards put a lot of his eggs in the Iowa basket and that was a political gamble, probably a smart one actually. But like with all gambles sometimes one wins and sometimes one loses. When you win a big stakes gamble the pay off can be sizable, but losing has real consequences also and Edwards bet more on Iowa than anyone else. If this were a game of roulette I would say that Edwards has a much larger percentage of his chips riding on his ball landing in Iowa than either Clinton or Obama do.

The other thing is that 1-2-3 ranking thing you referred to, and how much the Iowa results will immediatly matter, assunming that the three leading candidates are all polling inside that leading pack heading into other early states. If the spread between the top three is very tight, then it matters a little less where one falls within those rankings. If there are steep drop offs in polling support from one slot to another, losing Iowa AND ranking a somewhat weak third nationally, as in the case now for Edwards, prior to the Iowa results coming in could cripple Edwards especially when they did. If either Edwards or Obama is seen to be lagging far back in third after Iowa, they risk bleeding supoprt to their non Clinton rival, as voters who want to defeat Hillary close ranks behind the candidate who then seems most viable as a Clinton alternative.

Sadly, as a Clark supporter, I sat through watching how Iowa results shifted the dynamics of the race significantly in 2004. For Clark, he took an immediate hard hit in his New Hampshire support tracable only to new momentum coming out of Iowa results causing many voters to suddenly shift toward Kerry and Edwards. I agree that Iowa may not be as important in 2008 as it was in 2004, but in 2004 Edwards blew well past the smart money expectations for him that were conventional wisdom until at least a few days before the actual caucus. Edwards was an upside surprise in 2004 coming in second in Iowa. If anything the opposite would be true in Iowa for Edwards in 2008, but especially if he came in third there or second to anyone other than Clinton.


edited to make this post better able to stand alone as a personal journal entry (in case anyone is curious).