Reply #35: Great post, my take

[draft_mario_cuomo]

I agree Clark has no chance of entering late and winning if Gore is in the race (and it seems Gore is not going to run).

As to Edwards, he is moving back up in the national polls and catching Obama for 2nd. ;) I do agree, though, that the support for Gore indicates some people are not satisfied with the current field. I do not believe that is because he have a weak field. There is always this yearning for an outsider if a big name politician is not running but considered a potential candidate. Look at Mario Cuomo in 1988 and 1992, Clark in 2004 (remember, when Clark got in the race he immediately shot up to 1st in the national polls at roughly 20%.), Obama in December of 2006 and January of 2007, Gore in 2003 and now again this time, and F. Thompson on the Republican side.

==There are many people still holding out for Gore, who are not content with the current field. If it becomes clear enough that Gore isn't running, a lot of that support will find itself to Clark and that is when he will break into the first tier. That could be aided by a sense of resignation from some supporters of a current front tier candidate if that candidate is seen as underperforming.==

I agree. Moreover, Clark would peel off a substantial slice of current Obama supporters. Why? Much of Obama's support is derived from people who automatically write-off anyone who voted for the IWR. Since Kucinich is viewed as "unelectable", this bloc is going to Obama by default right now. Clark offers these voters a choice. Moreover, Clark trumps Obama on this. What Clark said on the IWR mattered. Clark was part of the national debate in 2002. Clark is also a far more effective anti-war advocate than Obama (or anyone else), for obvious reasons.