Reply #20: There are many scenarios in which she can win

[PurityOfEssence]

I just don't see any of them very likely. First off, she's got to get out of the primary season, and the left is muy pissed at her right now. Yes, she's a fighter and hasn't gone to the right so much that she's irredeemable to the left, but if there are only one or two truly progressive candidates, she could be in real trouble here.

Let's leave it at that; if she gets the nomination, the lefties will mostly fall in line. The problem will then, ironically, come from the swing middle she's tried so studiously to court. Anyone who thinks this middle doesn't exist--as many have claimed--wasn't watching the mid-term election. After having swung to the left to secure the nomination, fresh ammunition will be available in heaps and this will also add into the inherent problem she has of having been on both sides of too many issues.

The problem is that so many factions of the loose confederacy we know as the right have troubles with her. (The right is far from unified: we've got fiscal monarchists, social conservatives, out-and-out fundie nutjobs, gummint-hating libertarians, world-domination freaks, image-conscious sheep who hope to be invited into the ruling class if they support them, racists, assorted bigots, terrified weaklings who're scared of change, fools, bumpkins and assorted oddballs.) Many simply won't vote for a woman, especially a strong one. Many have been brainwashed with Clinton hatred to such a degree that voting for her would be impossible. Virtually every faction I've listed will rise up with righteous dudgeon to vote for her opponent.

The only scenarios I see for her winning a general election are these: 1) the unswervatives nominate a true religious nut like Brownback, thus peeling off the secular right and center, 2) they nominate Romney and feel the wrath of the religious right and center, 3) the war, economy and world have blown up so severely that it reflects so badly on the GOP and the Dems who now control congress haven't been left holding the bag or 4) some last-minute revelation about their chosen candidate pulls the rug out from under them.

Putting personal issues aside, I just don't see her as electable.