Three problems facing John McCain in 2008

[jackbourassa]

Official Washington, both Democrat and Republican, seem to agree on one thing these days: John McCain is the favorite to win the Republican nomination for 2008, and if he does, he will almost certainly win the Presidency. But maybe i'm just slow, but I tend to think this analysis is completely wrong.

Now I agree that if the election were held today, McCain would have some advantages, given his popularity with the Washington media. The problem is that the election is not held today and the media does not select Presidents, no matter how hard they try. Given this, there are three realities, rarely discussed by journalists and pundits alike, which could seriously trip up McCain in his quest for the Presidency in the coming months.

1. Most potentially serious. If for some reason Dick Cheney, the Vice President of the United States, should resign or leave his position. I have read many posters argue that McCain would be appointed to replace him, but there is no way that this would happen. Why? Because Janet Napolitano is Governor of Arizona, and will most likely be re-elected this November. Oh yes, and she's a Democrat. If Bush were to appoint McCain to replace Cheney, it would leave a vacancy in that Senate seat which Governor Napolitano would fill by appointment. This means that the Democrats would pick up a Senate seat and bring the magic number down to 5 from 6, for winning back the Senate outright. It is my belief that Bush is more interested in maintaining his majority in the Senate than he is in helping McCain's political fortunes. My best guess is that Bush would more likely appoint his trusted adviser and current Secretary of State Condi Rice to the position of US Vice President rather than McCain. As a result of this, Rice would automatically become the front-runner for the Republican nomination, leap-frogging over McCain. This would become especially true if Hillary Clinton maintains her position as Democratic front runner.

2. McCain is very unpopular among the Republican base. I've always said that John McCain is the Republican version of Joe Lieberman. Both are popular inside the beltway, but neither are very popular among their respective bases. Remember when Joe Lieberman ran for President back in 2004? Despite having the highest name recognition, support from the DLC and other Washington "strategists," being the Vice Presidential candidate in 2000, early leads in the polls, and highest level of support among African Americans (the Democratic Party's most loyal voting bloc) Lieberman came in 5th in New Hampshire. Dismal, to say the least. Why? Because Lieberman is widely hated among the Democratic base. And the base matters. Especially in primaries. McCain faces similar problems. Consider this. In the two most recent non-binding Republican "straw-polls" held by conservative groups (one in Washington and the other in Tennessee) McCain lost them both, despite a concerted effort to win on each ballot. In the straw poll held in Washington (which again, I will argue, is where most of McCain's support comes from) he came in second to George Allen (whom I believe is the stealth front runner for the nomination). Then in Tennessee, he came in fifth - despite a last minute desperate maneuver to offer his delegates to President Bush). A recent ABC/Washington Post poll showed that McCain's approval among Republicans is less than 60%, with nearly 100% name identification. 25% of Republicans said they would not vote for him under any circumstance. Compare this with Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore and John Edwards whose support among Democrats range from 80% to 90%. This is a much more serious problem than people realize and is maybe one explanation why McCain has been working so hard kissing up to the Republican base lately. But this is a Catch-22. If McCain panders too hard he may lose support among Democrats and independents who supported him in the past because of his independent and maverick nature.

3. His immigration bill. This problem is related to number 2 in that this bill is very unpopular among the Republican base. McCain's involvement could be explained as another pander for hispanic supporters, an increasingly important voting bloc. But watching the reaction of Republicans to this bill, it could mean doom for McCain's Presidential aspirations. I can see the commercials already. McCain, allying himself with Liberal scion Ted Kennedy, introduces a bill that would grant permanent residence to 10+ million illegal immigrants. How do you suspect Allen or Frist will play this in Iowa or New Hampshire? I honestly think that McCain may have irrevocably destroyed his chances at winning the Republican nomination this past week. If Republican opponents of McCain make this an issue in 2008, I think he is done.

Therefore, for these reasons I think it's way too early to consider Senator John McCain a lock for the Republican nomination.