Reply #71: Agreed that I was making a tangential point

[Febble]

and probably made it badly.

I don't recognise the theory you ascribe to me though, although I may simply misunderstand your paraphrase. All I am hypothesising is that Kerry voters either had a slightly higher response rate than Bush voters in a majority of precincts, or were selected at a slightly higher rate (I think the evidence is more in favour of the latter). And that once the responses were reweighted to correct for this, the cross-tabs indicated that a minority of respondents had voted for Gore.

This would damage my hypothesis (for which, I would argue, there is considerable evidence) if I couldn't propose a hypothesis to account for it. But I can, which is that it may reflect the fact that of those who voted for Bush this time, some were Gore voters who thought they'd voted for Bush last time.

There is clearly non-communication going on here, because I don't really understand why this is not fairly obvious. I don't mean obvious that it did happen, just obvious that it could. I certainly don't buy the assertion that no Gore voter who voted for Bush would forget they'd voted for Gore. It seems to me perfectly possible that they could, and indeed it seems evident, from OTOH's data, that some did.