The Battle for the Exurbs

[marbuc]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/14/opinion/14texeira.html?th&emc=th

My apologies if this has been posted. I never believed exurbanites were any different politically than suburbanites, despite the numerous declarations to the contrary.


Washington — For some time now, conservatives have tended to see America's exurbs - those fast-growing counties at the fringes of metropolitan areas populated by legions of young families - as a source of Republican strength that will, over time, turn the Democrats into a permanent minority party. George W. Bush's strong showing in the exurbs in 2004 seemed to validate the thesis. When it comes to understanding exurban voters, Republicans just seemed to "get it."

But do they really? In the Virginia governor's race, Jerry Kilgore - a Republican who ran a bruising, culture-war-driven campaign against his Democratic opponent, Timothy Kaine - lost quintessential exurban Loudoun County, one of the fastest growing counties in America, by 51 percent to 46 percent. In contrast, John Kerry lost the county to Mr. Bush in 2004 by 56 percent to 44 percent. And even Mark Warner, Mr. Kaine's Democratic predecessor, lost Loudoun in 2001.

The same pattern can be seen in neighboring Prince William County, where both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Warner went down to defeat, but where Mr. Kaine pulled out a victory. Given that Mr. Kaine dominated Democratic strongholds like suburban Fairfax County, carrying it by 60,000 votes - a far wider margin than either Mr. Kerry or Mr. Warner were able to manage - Republicans needed big wins in Loudoun and Prince William to take back the governor's mansion.