Reply #51: well, let's start with the article ...

[welshTerrier2]

while you're free to suggest your historical analysis will hold for the future, there are plenty of people who believe Iraq is heading for civil war ... btw, my belief that civil war is inevitable is not an argument for continued U.S. occupation ... quite the opposite is true ... my belief is that installation of a U.S. puppet regime will only delay the inevitable but make its consequences even worse ...

you asked for the basis of my opinion ... let's start with this article:

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0122-01.htm

CIA Officers Warn of Iraq Civil War, Contradicting Bush's Optimism

CIA officers in Iraq are warning that the country may be on a path to civil war, current and former U.S. officials said Wednesday, starkly contradicting the upbeat assessment that President Bush gave in his State of the Union address.

The CIA officers' bleak assessment was delivered verbally to Washington this week, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the classified information involved.

The warning echoed growing fears that Iraq's Shiite majority, which has until now grudgingly accepted the U.S. occupation, could turn to violence if its demands for direct elections are spurned.


Tens of thousands of Shiite Muslims protest in the streets Baghdad, Iraq. The protesters are demanding a fair election process for Iraq. (Photo/ Tom Pennington)

Meanwhile, Iraq's Kurdish minority is pressing its demand for autonomy and shares of oil revenue.

"Both the Shiites and the Kurds think that now's their time," said one intelligence officer. "They think that if they don't get what they want now, they'll probably never get it. Both of them feel they've been betrayed by the United States before."

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