HardBall: Dean Win Solid. Can Take Voters to Caucus. Kerry People Can’t

[WiseMen]

Panel on HardBall tonight argued that Kerry motivational effort can’t compete with the Dean organizations solid support-base that already have tickers to the Party caucus and have booked their ride. Kerry doesn’t have the names phone numbers and addresses, much less car rides for his supporters. Sounds as if the challenge of Kerry winning Iowa is like Gore trying to win Florida – everything is in the way.

I agree that Dean’s and Gephart’s massive organizations could totally swamp the the grass-roots interest in Kerry. From what I have heard, Kerry's troops are experienced but far fewer in numbers than those fielded by Dean and Gephart.

But the challenge facing Kerry in Iowa is even more formidable. There are 2 additional barriers to a Kerry victory:

1. The Big-Name political and movie-star endorsers of Dean have a great deal at stake in a Dean win. It is reasonable that they should pull out of all the stops to attract more media presence to the Dean "movement" and to re-energize Dean voters. Dean’s folks may not only arrive at caucus in chauffeured convenience but arrive excited.

2. The Corporate Media have much invested in the current "Official Stories" re. Dean and Clark. The script is that Dean sweeps Iowa and NH backed by a swath of endorsements from the Gore-wing and races into withering fire from shadowy forces from the Clinton-wing. There is no accepted script regarding Kerry and if you pay attention you will notice that Kerry is still relatively ignored. A lot of Kerry coverage this weekend could help bring out the vote, but it is not likely to happen.

So much for “we the people.”