To win the GE, Obama needs Kerry states plus these four states---IA, NM, NV, CO---or OH (Updated)

[ProSense]

How easy is it? Consider that Gore won IA and NM, and then look at the vote margins:

Bush 286, Kerry 252

If Obama wins these four states (with 26 electoral votes), and the results will be: 260 (R), 278 (D)

Iowa: Bush by 10,000 votes (7)
New Mexico: Bush by 6,000 votes (5)
Nevada: Bush by 21,000 (5)
Colorado: Bush by 100,000 (9)


Add Ohio to the above, and the results will be: 240 (R), 298 (D)

Ohio: Bush by 118,000 (20)


In 2000, Gore lost Ohio (by 176K) and NH, but won New Mexico (370 votes) and Iowa (4K votes)

Bush 271, Gore 266


If Florida had gone to Gore (+1,000 votes), it would have been:

Bush 246, Gore 291

2000 and 2004 maps


Hillary's camp pushing her electability based on electoral vote projections is simply bogus. They're also ignoring the dynamics of the two previous elections: The selection process that gave the election to Bush in 2004, and the tampering and vote suppression that impacted the 2004 result. With more than 120 million votes cast, the election could have easily gone the other way based on less than 100K votes.

Updated:

The "Told You So" Calculation

May 29, 2008 11:59 AM

"Have you seen the general election polls lately?" Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, asks in a new email fundraising pitch. "They consistently show that we'll beat John McCain in November. In a national head-to-head match and in the critical swing states, the numbers show I'm the best candidate to take back the White House for Democrats. That is why it's critical that we stay in this race and keep fighting for every last vote. We can win the nomination if we extend our popular vote lead, and that means putting everything we have into the final races. With just a few days before the voters in Puerto Rico head to the polls, our campaign is working hard -- and your support is making the difference."

Chris Cillizza at The Fix postulates that Clinton and her husband "seem to be laying the groundwork -- whether unconsciously or consciously -- to go back to Democratic voters if Barack Obama comes up short in November with a very concise message: 'Told you so.'"

Cillizza notes that Clinton herself in that Argus Leader editorial board meeting said she found calls for her to drop out "curious because it is unprecedented in history. I don't understand it and between my opponent and his camp and some in the media, there has been this urgency to end this and you know historically that makes no sense, so I find it a bit of a mystery."

Bill Clinton over the weekend, noting the electoral math arguments we've pointed out before (most significantly that Clinton out-polls Obama significantly in Florida and Ohio), said "she is winning the general election today and he is not, according to all the evidence. And I have never seen anything like it. I have never seen a candidate treated so disrespectfully just for running."

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edited title to make sense and for clarity.