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Hillary is unelectable [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-07-08 08:07 PM
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Hillary is unelectable
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Edited on Wed May-07-08 08:09 PM by ProSense
She cannot win the primary; therefore, she will not be in the GE.

. . .

Ignoring the voters who chose “uncommitted” in Michigan, where he was not on the ballot, Mr. Obama has a 230,000 vote advantage. If those voters are assigned to Mr. Obama or John Edwards based on exit poll results, his lead grows to about 410,000.

In the remaining six contests, about 8 million people are eligible to vote (that total includes all of the Republicans in Montana and about three million people in Puerto Rico). If 35 percent go to the polls, Mrs. Clinton would need the support of two-thirds of them to win the popular vote. (So far, she has met this bar only in Arkansas).

<...>

PLEDGED DELEGATES

According to a New York Times count, Mr. Obama leads 1,591 to 1,423 in pledged delegates. Because results are incomplete, not all delegates have been allocated.

To win this count, Mrs. Clinton would need to pick up more than 80 percent of the unallocated pledged delegates. One measure of how difficult this would be: in her best state so far - Arkansas - she won 77 percent of the pledged delegates.

link



Maybe the superdelegates are waiting for her to score more than 85% in the remaining contest?

Hillary is using the white vote to court superdelegates

Unlike Obama, who has struggled to win segments of the white voting population in some states (not those he won by 65% or more), Hillary at one time had a commanding lead over Obama among black voters.

November:

Clinton tops Obama among African-Americans


January:





The superdelegates will have to accept that Hillary's tactics were/are responsible for driving black voters away.

In fact, Obama is now the preferred candidate in New Jersey, a state Hillary won.

Obama does better against McCain than Clinton in Michigan poll

After last night's crushing defeat in NC and Obama's excellent showing in Indiana, it's clear that Hillary's pandering on gas tax and pushing the Jermiah Wright issue didn't help her at all.




edited to fix link

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