Reply #32: Hillary by less than anticipated

[Awsi Dooger]

I sense closer than expected, a Hillary win but mid single digits, primarily due to the settled perspective of the race compared to early March in Ohio and Texas, when it was less obvious to Hillary supporters that the math didn't work for her. At that point there was still outside hope of re-votes in Florida and Michigan. My instinct is some weariness of the extended campaign, and signs that Obama has not fared well while under scrutiny, will actually improve his fortunes in Pennsylvania, undecided voters giving him the benefit of a doubt.

I bet Hillary heavily in Ohio at barely worse than 50/50. Now the damn Intrade tariff in Pennsylvania is roughly 90/10. It never dropped to my Go price of 60/40. I'd be surprised if she managed her Ohio margin.

This is what busts me up, the desperate rationale that Hillary needs to beat the spread, garbage like Chris Matthews claiming the over/under is 8 and anything less than that will be comparitive failure. That must sound really clever to the brain cells, when they dream up something like that. I note similar threads all over this forum. Now fast forward to what a 3 or 4 or 5 point, or similar, Hillary win would look like:

* Victory speech by one candidate alone, smiles and celebration in the background for a half hour, covered by all the cable networks, and guaranteed the superior speech of the two, based on confidence and atmosphere

* Relatively short concession speech by Obama, less smiles and zest than normal, deflated room

* Margin of victory flashed on the screen all night, gap of tens of thousands of votes if not more, alongside the percentages

* Pundits re-visiting the theme that Obama can't win the major states, or put Hillary away, and what that signifies toward November, if anything

* Newspaper headlines across the country atop page one, trumpeting a Hillary win.

Yes, there would be rightful focus on the delegate apportionment, barely cutting into Obama's margin. But that's primarily a specialist's topic, something that will be front and center here and elsewhere on the internet, but initial media reports are aimed to the masses and the bottom line of a Hillary win dominates the news. That would be the taxi cab and water cooler highlight on Wednesday.

If Obama wins, absolutely it's over. But anyone who pretends a Hillary triumph will be downplayed or dismissed based on margin has a fuzzy vision of reality. Pennsylvania is roughly a +4 blue state in general election terms. And that means we basically take it for granted, no thought of failure unless our candidate is facing a national landslide. Yet in the primary we're desperate to imply a similar 4 point win would be spun as a loss? Please.

And it's also amusing when Obama supporters cling to the old 20+ deficit, asserting that's the true barometer, and it's amazing he's done so well. The Obama internal memo from a couple of months ago projected a 52-47 defeat. An isolated spot on the calendar with laser focus for 6 weeks and millions of bucks for 6 weeks was never a true 20 point hole, not even close, not on this planet.