Reply #66: My predictions.

[Drunken Irishman]

Texas: Obama will win by 8-10 points.
Ohio: Obama will win by 5 points.
Rhode Island: Clinton will win by 8-10 points.
Vermont: Obama will win by 30+ points.

My reasoning:

Texas is trending in Obama's favor and he has a great GOTV, which I think will definitely help him there. I expect extremely high turnouts in Houston, Dallas and Austin, however, I have some doubts Clinton will see a dramatic turnout in her stronger regions (the border area).

Ohio is much more tricky, since I've always felt she had a bigger lead there than in Texas. I said 5 for Obama because I think he's surging in the right direction and by Tuesday, he'll have erased her lead and built his own -- even if the poll doesn't show it.

Rhode Island and Vermont don't need to be explained.

One thing I've noticed is that the polls seem to underrepresented Obama's support. If that's the case, he could easily win Texas big.