### UNOFFICIAL SUPER TUESDAY (and beyond) PRIMER ###

[THUNDER HANDS]

There are 22 states up for grabs a week from today.

The following are the states that are having primaries, and the number of delegates (including super delegates) at stake...

California = 440
New York = 280
Illinois = 185
New Jersey = 127
Massachusettes = 121
Georgia = 103
Missouri = 88
Minnesota = 88
Tennessee = 85
Colorado = 70
Arizona = 67
Connecticut = 61
Alabama = 60
Arkansas = 47
Oklahmoma = 47
Kansas = 40
New Mexico = 38
Utah = 29
Delaware = 23
Idaho = 23
North Dakota = 21
Alaska = 18

As you can see, the bottom 18 states have less delegates at sake (1029), than the top 4 states do (1032).

But, this is not a winner-take-all primary. It's proprotional. If you get above 15% in any state - you get some delegates. if you get above 30% - you get even more.

You need 2025 to win the nomination. Right now Clinton has the slight edge (by about 100) if you count superdelegates, yet she still has less than 250 overall.

By the end of Tuesday, she could have at least 1000 going into the next primary if she hovers around 40% in the big states. If Obama cracks 30% in all the states he runs in, at the very least he will end up with 800 delegates. That's the floor for them both. From what I can see by looking at the numbers, Clinton should head out of Super Tuesday with 1,200 delegates and Obama should have 1,000.

That's still not enough to secure the nomination. Which means we go to:

Louisiana = 68 delegates
Washington = 97 delegates
Maine = 34 delegates
Maryland = 99 delegates
D.C. = 38 delegates
Virginia = 103 delegates
Wisconsin = 92 delegates
Hawaii = 29 delegates

A total of 560 delegates up for grabs. Assuming the vote stays consistent (ie, Edwards stays in the race, sucking up about 15% of the vote), Clinton should have 1,400 delegates and Obama 1,200. Even if Edwards drops out, the vote will still be around 50-50 or at most 60-40, which means the two will be hovering within 200 delegates of eachother for the next week or two.

And then comes March, where we get closer to the last stand being made....

Texas = 228 delegates
Mississippi = 38 delegates
Ohio = 162 delegates
South Dakota = 22 delegates
Nebraska = 31 delegates
Rhode Island = 32 delegates
Vermont = 23 delegates

That's 536 delegates. If patterns hold and the race remains close, Clinton could come out of this with an overall delegate total of 1,600 - 1,700 delegates and Obama 1,400 - 1,500.

April will bring...

Pennsylvania = 181 delegates

If Edwards support drops off, below 15%, then the two will be balling between them for almost 100 delegates each. If Clinton wins, and wins big, she could be up anywhere between 200 and 300 delegates. But if Obama wins, he could narrow her gap to 200 or 150. Either way, both candidates should have between 1,450 and 1,700 delegates.

And then in May it comes down to...

North Carolina = 110 delegates.
Kentucky = 55 delegates.
Indiana = 79 delegates.
Nebraska = 31 delegates.
Oregon = 62 delegates.
South Dakota = 22 delegates

That's 359 delegates. Conceivably, those states should set the frontrunner, whoever it is, to within 100 or 200 delegates of the magic number of 2025.

Unfortunately, we're out of states.

And then it goes to a brokered convention. Unless....

Unless....


Unless the votes from Michigan and Florida are counted, in which case Clinton would be the nominee.

And that is your Super Tuesday and BEYOND primer.