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Some really wild figuring based on state of SC stats and using an average of most polling..... [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 05:32 PM
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Some really wild figuring based on state of SC stats and using an average of most polling.....
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Edited on Sat Jan-26-08 05:44 PM by suston96
registered non whites 629000
X 80% non-white turnout 503200
x 62% non-white vote Obama 311984
add 20% white vote Obama 127400

Total Obama 439384

white voters less Repubs
who voted Repub Primary 1274000
x 50% turnout 637000
less x20% to Obama 127400

80% split Clinton Edwards 509600
plus 38% non-white vote 191216

Total split Clinton Edwards 700816

NotE Total turnout: 1140200

Neither Clinton nor Edwards can beat Obama, depending how they share that 700,816 votes.

Turnout is everything. Missing variable: women - non-white and white and where they will go.

I am editing and adding percentages. Please compare with other threads.

Obama 38% Clinton/Edwards split 62%
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