Opinion: Obama just won the nomination. Here's why:

[kevsand]

I'm guessing there are lots of "Reagan Democrats" in both Nevada and South Carolina. Obama just signaled that it's time for the last of them to finally come back home. I think a bunch of them will.

Combine that with an energized youth vote, Obama's ability to draw in other first time voters, and the successful use of the at-large precinct caucuses, and you have a recipe for record Democratic turnout in Nevada.

Now liberally sprinkle in resentment against Hillary's heavy handed efforts to suppress the participation of working people, and suddenly Obama has much better than expected performance among labor and Hispanics. Bake at high heat for two days, and serve up a 5 to 6 point margin of victory in Nevada.

Take the bump that follows, and add to that the growing sense of hope, excitement, and confidence among non-white voters. Simmer for a week, and Obama reforges a coalition that has eluded dems for decades: minorities join with Reagan Democrats to give Obama a 12 to 15 point win in South Carolina.

At that point, there is no stopping the momentum going into Feb. 5. California, New York, and Illinois all go for Obama, as well as several smaller states. We have a nominee.

Disclaimer: This is opinion, not fact, and unabashedly speculative. Obviously, I want to know what everyone else thinks, but don't expect me to spend huge amounts of energy defending it. I'm not invested in it at all. It just came to me after dinner, and I thought I should write it down before my nap... :-)