Bush's Slide Deeper Than Any One Poll Shows

[Bob Geiger]

Let's face it, watching George W. Bush's approval rating tick incrementally down to the single digits he has so rightfully earned is in some ways the political equivalent of watching paint dry. We know he's going down and the relevant issue seems to be when that will happen. At this point, the only interesting thing in examining individual approval polls is wondering how uninformed or Kool-Aid drunk this thirty-something percent must be to still actually believe he is doing a good job.

What's more instructive, is to look at where he started and how far he has fallen in just 18 months since the 2004 presidential election. On November 2, 2004, Bush received a 50 percent or more vote of confidence in 31 of 50 states --30 states if you believe he did not legitimately win Ohio. How many states give him that same vote just a year and a half later, based on April 2006 approval polls? Four.

Let's go to the maps:


If you ignore the too-little-too-late sadness we are all inclined to feel, it's an amazing sight to see so many of our countrymen getting a clue after all this time. Think about it: Bush has gone from people in 31 states effectively giving him a positive approval rating in November 2004 to only these states giving him the same nod now (with April approval ratings):

• Idaho 53%
• Nebraska 51%
• Utah 55%
• Wyoming 54%

Keep in mind also, that these four states collectively make up barely two percent of the 296.5 million people in the United States based on a July 2005 Census Bureau estimate, so in sheer numbers, it's not quite the same as if people in New York, California or Texas still like him.

What's also interesting is to see which states are abandoning Bush to the greatest degree. When measured by what percentage vote they gave Bush in 2004 compared to the latest approval ratings, here are the states in which the president has lost the most support:

• Kentucky -21%
• Indiana -21%
• North Dakota -20%
• Montana -20%

And there are many other states not far behind, where the unpopular president has lost between 15 and 19 percent of his support.

And, while it’s just a matter of time before Bush goes below 30 percent nationally, here's the states already ahead of the curve in recognizing just what a lousy leader this guy really is (with current approval ratings):

• Connecticut 27%
• Delaware 27%
• Illinois 29%
• Massachusetts 26%
• New Jersey 28%
• New York 24%
• Rhode Island 24%
• Vermont 27%

Finally, in case you're wondering how he's doing back in the Lone Star State, Bush is clinging to a dismal 45 percent approval rating in his home state, with 17 percent loss of support since 2004.

At this rate, he may not even be able to go back home to Crawford after he's impeached.

You can reach Bob Geiger at [email protected] and read more from him at Democrats.com.