Reply #46: Oh Brother, where art thou?

[autorank]

A definitive scenario for a Bush victory has been
provided.Since you left out the demographic percentages, I've
calculated them so that we can investigate your analysis in
relation to NEP polling data.

I’m happy that you agreed to the mathematical stipulation that
the maximum Bush 2000 voter turnout was 48.7mm. In so doing,
you have accepted that the Final Exit Poll weightings of
43/37% Bush/Gore are impossible. So we have a legitimate basis
for further analysis. 

The question is: where do you go from there? How do you derive
the Bush 3 million vote margin, while adhering to the
weighting constraints? Well, the first step is to assume
feasible turnout weightings for Bush and Gore voters. You have
done so. Your weightings are reasonable, even somewhat
conservative. 

Since the playing field has been leveled as far as the
weightings are concerned, we can now look at actual vote share
scenarios. This is where we part company.

To believe your Bush 3mm win scenario, we must believe the
following:
1- One out of seven (14.6%) Gore 2000 voters switched to Bush.
2- Only 6.6 percent of Bush 2000 voters switched to Kerry.
3- Kerry won 52.6% of those who did not vote (DNV) in 2000, 
These are New voters and others who voted prior to 2000, but
sat that one
out.

The vote share assumptions are arbitrary and have no
evidentiary basis. They are far removed from the National Exit
Poll at 12:22am (13047 respondents) and the 1:25pm final
(13660). 

These are the corresponding percentages:

..........................12:22am 1:25pm OTOH
1. Gore voters for Bush:      8;  9;   14.7
2. Bush 2k voters for Kerry: 10;  9;    6.6
3. DNV for Kerry:            57; 54;   52.6 

Considering that the exit poll MoE is 1% for the national vote
and 2% for sub-samples, the probabilities of your vote shares
are remote. You had to assume that Bush did significantly
BETTER than he did in the final exit poll, which he won 51-48%
and was matched to the recorded vote. 

You based your original case on the “false recall”
hypothetical: that Gore voters, but not Bush voters, forgot
who they voted for in 2000. This was your rationale in order
to explain the 43 Bush/37% Gore weightings. As I stated
earlier, the "false recall" argument is irrelevant
and moot - now that you have agreed that the 43/37% weightings
were impossible to begin with. You use feasible, plausible
weightings in your Bush win scenario. 

Time for a reality check. 

How is one to believe your assumption that 1 out of 7 Gore
voters who saw the election stolen from them by Bush in 2000,
would forgive or forget and vote for Bush in 2004, especially
when his job performance has been, shall we say, less than
satisfactory? 

He had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day. 

Furthermore, Democratic 2004 voter registration far exceeded
the Republicans in spite of massive evidence of voter
disenfranchisement, especially in the key states of Florida
and Ohio.

Finally, are we to believe your claim that Bush won by a 3
million vote margin? Because that is EXACTLY WHAT YOUR
IMPLAUSIBLE SCENARIO SUGGESTS. 

In other words, are you in fact telling us FRAUD WAS NOT
COMMITTED IN THE ELECTION? Because that is what your scenario
shows.  Difficult to imagine.

The challenge has not been met.
The Bush win scenario is IMPLAUSIBLE. 
It doesn't pass the smell test.

Here are calculations of national vote shares, assuming your
weightings
for: 
1) your Bush win scenario 
2) the 12:22am exit poll 
3) the final 1:25pm exit poll

Assuming your (reasonable) weights, Kerry handily wins both
Exit Poll
timelines. 

OTOH 				 Bush winning margin: 3.123mm
	Votes	BushV	BushP	Kerry	Kerry%	Other	Other%
DNV	26.5	12.30	46.4%	13.9	52.6%	0.3	1%
Gore	46.3	6.80	14.7%	39.0	84.3%	0.5	1%
Bush	45.8	42.30	92.4%	3.0	6.6%	0.5	1%
Other	3.7	0.70	18.9%	3.0	80.1%	0.0	1%
							
Total	122.3	62.10	50.78%	59.0	48.22%	1.2	1.00%

12:22am NEP (13047)		Kerry winning margin: 7.879mm
	Votes	BushV	BushP	Kerry	Kerry%	Other	Other%
DNV	26.5	10.87	41%	15.11	57%	0.27	1%
Gore	46.3	3.70	8%	42.13	91%	0.00	0%
Bush	45.8	41.22	90%	4.58	10%	0.00	0%
Other	3.7	0.78	21%	2.63	71%	0.30	8%

Total	122.3	56.57	46.25%	64.45	52.69%	0.56	0.46%


1:25pm Final NEP (13660)	Kerry winning margin: 3.719mm
	Votes	BushV	BushP	Kerry	Kerry%	Other	Other%
DNV	26.5	11.93	45%	14.31	54%	0.27	1%
Gore	46.3	4.63	10%	41.67	90%	0.00	0%
Bush	45.8	41.68	91%	4.12	9%	0.00	0%
Other	3.7	0.78	21%	2.63	71%	0.30	8%
							
Total	122.3	59.01	48.25%	62.73	51.29%	0.56	0.46%