Reply #137: The 97 of 100 figure is from an L.A. Times article

[Logansquare]

Sorry, I can't link from it, I got this off of Lexis-Nexis. I don't think it hurts us to do a SWOT analysis (For you non-business people, Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) of the Democratic Party. One point the authors were trying to make is that the reddening of metropolitan exurbs brings in more electoral votes for the Republicans. The Democratic analysts had some good points as well, saying that "filling in" of suburbs with population will turn them more blue.


November 22, 2004 Monday
Home Edition

SECTION: MAIN NEWS; National Desk; Part A; Pg. 1

HEADLINE: GOP Plants Flag on New Voting Frontier;
Bush's huge victory in the fast-growing areas beyond the suburbs alters the political map.
BYLINE: Ronald Brownstein and Richard Rainey, Times Staff Writers
DATELINE: WASHINGTON


<snip> Left-leaning analysts Ruy Teixeira and John B. Judis, in their 2002 book "The Emerging Democratic Majority," argued that the fast-growth exurbs aren't as much of a threat to Democrats as commonly believed, because most of them are still much smaller than the urban centers. They also predicted that as these edge communities fill in, their increasingly metropolitan character will make them more receptive to Democrats.

But Bush's enormous margins in the fast-growth counties suggest that, if anything, these places are growing even more solidly Republican.

And in some of the most hotly contested states -- Michigan, Ohio, Florida and Colorado -- that trend could leave the Democrats trying to squeeze out even more votes from static or shrinking urban centers and inner-tier suburbs, while Republicans are dominating the counties exploding in population several exits down the interstate.

Even in several states Kerry won, Democratic blue was concentrated in urban areas, with Republican red covering almost everything else.

"The Democrats just need to look at the map: Their constituency is very concentrated," said demographer Kasarda. "It's a wake-up call."