Reply #5: I almost always agree with you arendt, but this time your analysis is off.

[hedda_foil]

As a strong RFK supporter in '68, the candidate who most closely resembles him is Dean. McCarthy was a good guy, but he came across as a bit of a wuss and his supporters were, in fact, mostly kids. Dean's supporters average age is 44, though he is re-energizing the college-age and 20-something formerly non-voters as well. Dean is a fighter for classic American values and rebuilding the type of coalition that FDR and later JFK and RFK developed.

McCarthy was extremely liberal and ran as a single issue candidate. Dean is a classic moderate Democrat who first stood out for his stance on the Iraq War but who is not an antiwar candidate in the sense of McCarthy or Kucinich (who is the closest to McCarthy of the current candidates.

Here's a rundown of Dean's support at the beginning of October before his minority support began to build.

http://www.deanvolunteers.org/Survey/


Dean Meetup Survey Results
Bentley College (Waltham, MA) and Dean Volunteers conducted a survey of attendees at the Dean Meetups. We attempted to address three key questions in the survey:
Who attends Meetups?
What are the political beliefs of Dean Meetup attendees?
Are Meetups politically effective?
The survey received 579 valid responses from 16 Meetup venues in 13 states, all at the October Dean Meetups. Our findings:


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Demographics

Demographically, Dean Meetup attendees were mostly white (91%), middle aged (44 years, on average), middle income (about $67,000 per household) professionals (44%).

For comparison, the national average for Internet users in the general population is 80% white, about 36 years of age on average, from households with an average income of $62,000 (Pew Internet & American Life Project, summer 2003 survey ).

Our Dean Meetup respondents almost universally reported heavy Internet usage: 91% went on-line at least once a day.

For perspective, Pew found that in 2002, 59% of the on-line audience sought election news from the Internet at least once a week, down from the 75% who reported that frequency of use during the presidential year 2000.
Conclusions: Dean Meetup attendees fit the stereotype of predominantly white and middle-class. The average age is higher than the stereotype. Internet usage is well above average.


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Political Preferences

In the 2000 election, 72% voted for Gore, 12% for Nader, and 2% for Bush.

66% self-identified as strong Democrats; 19% as independents.

39% self-identified as progressive; 32% as liberal; 11% as populist.

On a scale of 1-5, where 1 means strongly oppose, 3 means neutral, and 5 means strongly favor, the average response for other selected politicians was:
3.6 for Bill Bradley
3.1 for John McCain
3.0 for Ralph Nader
2.0 for Ross Perot
1.1 for George W. Bush
Conclusions: Dean supporters are stereotyped as supporting maverick candidates -- but our survey found selectivity in support. John McCain edged out Ralph Nader, a sign of non-ideological support. Ross Perot was opposed despite his maverick reputation. Bush's universally low rating is the closest item to consensus in the survey results.


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Primary Preferences

We asked which respondents' opinions of the other Democratic presidential candidates. On the same scale of 1-5, the average response was:
4.9 for Howard Dean
3.2 for Carol Moseley-Braun
3.1 for Dennis Kucinich
3.0 for Wesley Clark (this was 2 weeks after he entered the race)
3.0 for John Edwards
2.9 for John Kerry
2.8 for Bob Graham (this was 1 week before he withdrew)
2.5 for Dick Gephardt
2.5 for Al Sharpton
1.8 for Joe Lieberman
Conclusions: Dean supporters viewed only Moseley-Braun and Kucinich favorably, and even they barely scored above neutral. Lieberman scored by far the most unfavorably, despite that 72% of respondents voted for him in 2000.


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Campaign Effectiveness

Campaigns care about support as expressed in donating and volunteering as well as voting. Our results indicate this is Meetup's greatest strength:

53% of Dean Meetup attendees have donated to political campaigns.

52% reported stronger support for Dean as a result of this Meetup.

Less than 1% reported weaker support for Dean as a result of this Meetup.

73% will get more involved with Dean campaign because of this Meetup.

Less than 1% will get less involved with Dean campaign because of this Meetup.

74% reported that they had invited others to attend Meetups.

32% reported that this was their first Meetup.
Conclusions:Over half of the participants claim stronger support as a result of their attendance. That's a sign of strong political effectiveness, especially because this Meetup was attended by 120,000 people. The donation rates indicate that over one-third of Dean's entire donor base attends Meetups. One-third of the attendees were newcomers -- that growth rate is consistent with past Meetup attendance growth rates.