Reply #13: In 28 surveys, 86% showed undecideds breaking mostly to the challenger

[Awsi Dooger]

That does not say 86% of the undecideds break toward the challenger.

I've studied polls and results since '96. Breaking them down by different types of pre-election poll numbers -- 50/50, 5 point race, 10 point race, 15+ point race -- it's clear undecideds break least toward the challenger in a 50/50 atmosphere. I'm conservatively estimating Kerry's share at 62-63%.