Reply #58: Odds

[Kevin Fenton]

I don't know about 180 to 1 against. There may well be more than two such exercises a year, there may well be a propensity to run them in the week, rather than at the weekend, and the decision to go on 7 July may have been influenced by the G8 summit. Still, the fact that they were precisely those stations, means my initial, very strong assumption is that it was not just a coincidence.

I think the benefit of going on this day is that, if a person is caught, he can initially claim to be part of the exercise and perhaps use this to his advantage in some way.

However, just because it was not a coincidence does not mean that it was a false flag operation. As for the dometic political consequences, it will probably be a mixed blessing for Blair, weakening support for the war in Iraq, but increasing support for ID cards (which I don't think are going to work anyway).