Reply #3: An Excellent Article, Ma'am

[The Magistrate]

It seems very close to my own reading of the situation.

Sharon, from his own point of view, must do two things to successfully pull out of Gaza. First, he must convince both the Israeli right and the Arab Palestinian militant factions that the action is not one he was driven to, but purely voluntary, and no sign of weakness. Second, he must do catastrophic damage to the Arab Palestinian militant factions in Gaza, to make it difficult for them to become the political leadership of the area once he has withdrawn. It is questionable whether either of these goals, particularly the latter, can actually be achieved, but it is possible they may appear temporarily to have been achieved, and that will be sufficient to his purpose.

In the Jordan valley, it seems to me Sharon envisions as his long range objective abandoning everything beyond the current security barrier, with the exception of a military zone maintained on the river against the border of Jordan. This will be unacceptable, though for different reasons, to certain elements of both the Israeli and the Arab Palestinian polities. To push it through, the retirement from Gaza must appear a success.