Reply #105: So you're an unidentified flying object

[iverglas]

Flammable gas filling a room is extremely improbable, a loaded gun is highly probable.

Since I have a father with pale green eyes and a mother with pale blue eyes, it is highly probable that I have blue eyes. (Some would actualy say it's a certainty.)

Now, how much are you willing to bet on me having blue eyes?

Will you accept my actual eyes as proof of my eye colour? Or will you insist on telling me over and over that it is highly probable that my eyes are blue?

Jeezus f.... there's actually a basis in reality for saying it's highly probable that my eyes are blue.

There is no fucking basis in reality for saying that it is highly probable that any given firearm is loaded. If no one has ever loaded the firearm, there is no remote possibility, let alone probability, that is is loaded, just for instance.