Reply #21: That is a sound view.

[kristopher]

Be sure you factor this into your thinking:
1) Increasing global demand for energy.
2) Even with fracking, limited supply of natural gas.
3) Existing *underutilized* natural gas generating infrastructure that is adequate to replace large percentage of coal plants immediately
4) Low cost of investment in natural gas plants
5) Ability of natural gas plants to be run on various renewable biofuels with little to no conversion costs.
6) Nature of a distributed grid.

The pattern of investment in the developed nations shows an almost total shift to renewables/natgas and away from coal. Natural gas has a long history of price volatility while renewables are characterized by long term energy price stability. Uncertainty about costs associated with probable carbon taxes are a part of the this shift, but the declining costs of renewables is the strongest factor. For the past several years natgas has been #1, but in 2010, for the first time, renewables led the way in new installations, pushing natgas to second.

Take a look at the progress to date:
http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Category:Proposed_coal_plants_in_the_United_States