Reply #53: I'm fairly pessimistic.

[brokensymmetry]

Actually, I think we're seeing the formation of an oil plateau right now. The prices are quite volatile - one of the predictions of some forecasters.

It may be that nuclear, or solar, or coal, or any of a great many other things could offer partial solutions - but there is a big IF. If we have time. I'm not at all sure that we do.

We're extremely oil intensive. The food in the store travels thousands of miles to get to me; in fact, I've read that for every calorie of food we consume, we use 10 calories of oil.

And that's the real problem - transportation. Sure, we can liquify coal - but think how much coal, and how many coal plants would be required to cover just the demand in the U.S. Nuclear is nice, but it doesn't power vehicles. Some will propose the use of hydrogen cars; fine, but it will take quite awhile to replace the truck and automotive fleet.

A real question is - can economies grow without cheap fuel? I'm not at all sure they can. But if they cannot, how will we - as individuals, nations, or the world - pay for the switchover?

I suspect that Haiti isn't a bad model for the future. Hopefully, Easter Island isn't our destiny.