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I believe that biofuels need to be exploited to their maximum practical extent. But any energy infrastructure system would have to address periods of reduced production of these fuels. A system dependent on biofuels will be subject to crippling shortages during drought years without back-up systems. Can you imagine the effect of a ‘dust bowl’ series of years on a biofuel industry?
One way to mitigate would be to build a ‘strategic coal stockpile’ with mothballed liquefaction capacity ready to be put on line in the event of a shortfall. Mothballed capacity and stockpiles are not a part of a Laissez-faire system.
In the coming world of energy scarcity, the current ‘free-market’ dynamic will be incapable of providing a relatively stable energy supply. We will need a diverse, redundant and integrated energy infrastructure that will require planning and coordination far beyond what ‘market signals’ (ie: price) can provide.
We need to establish a USEA (U.S. Energy Authority) that provides centralized high-level planning, management and funding for the energy infrastructure.
Once we have established a USEA (U.S. Energy Authority) that provides centralized planning for the energy infrastructure, we can begin basing infrastructure development on an energy balance basis. This would hopefully avoid the building of inefficient systems, an example of which is the ethanol plant being built 7 mi. east of where I am now. This plant will burn coal to produce a liquid fuel with an EPR of 1 (corn ethanol) when you could produce a liquid fuel with an EPR of 5 from the coal directly, with the same carbon impact. A USEA could mandate that wind be used as the process energy for midwest corn ethanol, making corn ethanol an energy carrier for a renewable, but intermittent, energy source.
Using CTL as a primary liquid fuels supply is a mistake, from both a environmental and sustainability perspective. If we limit CTL to a back-up fuel source, and account for this carbon in the integrated energy plan, it should be manageable.
Of course, once we get things up and running smoothly, some GOP types will start screaming about how the 'strategic coal' CTL plants should be running to lower SUV go-juice prices, and will probably win.
But I can dream, can't I.
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