Reply #62: Thank you for the complement, and thank you

[amandabeech]

for your excellent analysis. I was completely ignorant of the specific problems that the Nazi's had on the Eastern front, and how they solved them, although I was aware that they had very little oil.

It might be interesting to point out here that the Nazi's attempted to solve their problems by forcing an "alliance" with Romania to gain control of the Ploesti fields in that country, an attempt to swing through Ukraine and southern Russia in a grab for the Caucasus wells (ending in Stalingrad), and devising a method for turning coal into oil. Shades of our current *Bush administration?

Thanks for the info on the Flatboat. I didn't know that they survived so late. That would be a good reason to keep our inland waterways intact--particularly the Mississippi and its branches system.

I agree with your conclusions concerning sail, horses and flatboats, and the Nazi's horses, rail and bicycles, but I have a few comments.

1. Horses -- We better get to breeding them and learning how to use them soon. I have read that training a draft team and driver for agriculture takes years. Perhaps the Amish will set up schools to teach the rest of us how to do it. In the Southwest, donkeys/burros may also be helpful for light transport.

2. Sail -- I read somewhere that for a few years after WWII, the Australians were still sending wool to Britain in large sailing ships. In the same article, the author said that the big, slow "wind-jammer" sailing cargo ships used in the Caribbean were used in South American coastal trade into the 1950s.

In an article that I saw on the 'net some time ago, it was reported that the Danes (go Vikings!) had developed plans for a large metal cargo sailing ship.

The trick will be to keep enough energy to make steel, etc., transport it to shipyards (of which the U.S. has few, of course), and have gas for welding and energy for riveting, for starters. And we may not have enough petrochemicals for high-tech fabric sails and and nylon ropes--back to cotton canvas and hemp at some point, I suppose.

If we go back to wood, I'd suggest a complete moratorium on cutting white pine, except for necessary thinning, which was an important wood for ships.

3. Rail v. Trucks-- the U.S. Energy Information Administration has some interesting data on our use of petroleum products. According to them, on-road transportation (which I assume is mostly large trucks) uses 60% of the diesel/distillates burned in the U.S., rail, about 5%. Http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/fuel_oil_and_kerosene_sales/current/pdf/table1.pdf
If rail is as reported 4-10 times more efficient than trucking, reducing shipping in general (more locally and regionally produced goods) and switching away from trucks unless absolutely necessary, would bring true savings and buy a little time.

4. Bicycles -- not always so hot with very little cartilage in one knee! (skiing accident). How about rechargeable battery assisted models? Less hard pumping is easier on the knees.