Reply #1: For perspective, assuming *no* increase in emissions, we'd have 17.5 years.

[joshcryer]

According to Wikipedia we release about 28.5 billion tonnes of CO2 a year into the atmosphere: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

However, I can find sites that show numbers as high as 31 billion tonnes in 2008: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009/Global-CO2-emissions-annual-increase-halves-in-2008.html

Tried to post an image but I didn't like the inline. Google image search for for global CO2 emissions: http://images.google.com/images?q=global%20co2%20emissions

Cumulative CO2 even shows a more scary image (an exponential growth curve): http://images.google.com/images?q=global+co2+cumulative

Damon did a study last year discussing the ramifications of this: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13395

His latest study gives the modellers something to go by, and *highly* simplifies the arguments (since we can now say x amount of carbon leads to x amount of warming), trying to find a free copy (darn pay-for websites). No doubt IPCC AR5 is going to be one scary report (especially considering AR4 didn't even take into account Greenland and Antarctic meltoff).

Here's the Nature abstract: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v459/n7248/abs/nature08047.html